Cardano (ADA) traded around $0.161 on Thursday after slipping during the previous session, yet on-chain and derivatives data pointed to improving investor confidence. Large holders continued adding to their positions, while futures activity strengthened ahead of the van Rossem hard fork scheduled for Saturday. At the same time, ADA remained below key technical levels, leaving traders focused on whether improving fundamentals can support a stronger recovery.
On-chain data from Santiment showed a widening gap between large and small Cardano holders. Wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA collectively controlled more than 25.65 billion ADA, marking their highest balance since February 2023.
Meanwhile, wallets holding fewer than 100 ADA reduced their holdings by about 0.7% during the past four months. The contrasting trend showed that larger investors continued accumulating Cardano while smaller holders remained cautious.
Furthermore, Cardano's development roadmap advanced this week after Intersect confirmed that the van Rossem hard fork will activate on Saturday. The confirmation followed governance ratification earlier in the week.
The upgrade introduces new Plutus functionality alongside protocol improvements. Those changes aim to improve smart contract performance, strengthen developer tools and increase overall network efficiency.
Derivatives data also pointed to rising market participation. According to CoinGlass, Cardano futures Open Interest increased from roughly $422 million on Monday to $445 million on Thursday.
Rising Open Interest alongside stabilizing prices often signals fresh capital entering the futures market instead of traders closing existing positions. As a result, derivatives activity aligned with the improving on-chain trends.
In addition, ADA's funding rate turned positive and reached 0.0042%. The positive reading showed that traders holding long positions were willing to pay a premium to maintain their exposure.
Read More: Cardano Development Activity Surges as Governance Plans Move Forward
Despite stronger on-chain and derivatives metrics, Cardano continued trading below several important technical levels. The broader market structure therefore remained bearish.
ADA stayed below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $0.179, the 100-day EMA at $0.208 and the 200-day EMA at $0.276. It also traded below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.173 and beneath trendline resistance near $0.207.
Momentum indicators presented mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index remained near 46, indicating neutral momentum without overbought or oversold conditions.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator turned slightly positive. The shift suggested bearish momentum had weakened, although buying pressure had not yet confirmed a sustained reversal.
If buyers regain control, resistance levels stand at $0.179, followed by the $0.207 to $0.208 region and then $0.2135 at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. On the downside, immediate support remains at $0.1500, while a break below that level could expose the June 25 swing low of $0.1382.
Cardano continued trading below major resistance despite improving market signals. Whale accumulation reached its highest level since February 2023, while futures Open Interest and funding rates increased ahead of the van Rossem hard fork. Traders will now watch whether ADA can break key resistance levels or revisit nearby support.