XRP traded near $1.36 after falling almost 3% in 24 hours as geopolitical tensions unsettled crypto markets. February closed with a 16.35% loss, its steepest monthly drop in the current downturn. Market analysts now track technical signals suggesting a potential structural turning point.
The decline followed rising conflict in the Middle East. Iran continued retaliatory actions after Israel–US airstrikes killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Feb. 28. Investors shifted toward safer assets, which weighed on cryptocurrencies, including XRP.
Despite the pressure, analysts studying long-term charts reported patterns that resemble earlier market cycles.
Austin, an XRP community commentator and market analyst, pointed to similarities between XRP’s weekly chart and the Russell 2000 index. The comparison focuses on how both assets interacted with long-term resistance lines.
The Russell 2000 tracks roughly 2,000 small companies in the United States. Investors often watch the index to measure how smaller businesses perform across the market.
Market data shows the Russell 2000 fell from its all-time high of 2,463 in November 2021. Afterward, the index formed a resistance trendline and remained below it for nearly three years. In November 2024, the index briefly broke above that resistance and reached 2,471. Soon after, a deeper pullback developed and pushed the index to 1,698.
The move completed what traders describe as an ABC correction at the trendline. A recovery then followed and produced a stronger breakout above resistance. That breakout drove the Russell 2000 to a new record of 2,738 in January 2026. The index continues to hold above the previous resistance level.
Austin noted that XRP’s weekly structure shows a similar formation. According to his observation, the resemblance raises the possibility of a comparable breakout pattern.
Meanwhile, XRP’s recent trading session offered limited activity for day traders. The token largely followed the broader crypto market direction. Trading volumes stayed modest throughout the session. No major protocol upgrades or partnership announcements appeared during the day.
Legal developments surrounding XRP also remained absent. As a result, market participants described the trading period as uneventful.
Yet analysts continued to focus on chart levels rather than short-term news. Technical indicators now sit close to areas that historically influenced XRP’s price cycles.
Crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto identified the 100-week Exponential Moving Average as a critical long-term level. In earlier market cycles, XRP approached this zone before strong upward expansions. In 2017, XRP rebounded from that level before its parabolic rally. The same technical zone also served as the base for the 2021 market cycle.
Current price action now approaches the same indicator again. Analysts are monitoring whether the historical pattern may repeat. The broader chart also reveals a long-term ascending channel spanning multiple cycles. XRP repeatedly found support near the lower boundary before moving toward the upper band during bullish phases.
At present, the token trades near that lower structural region again. The recurring structure across three cycles has drawn attention among technical analysts. If the pattern holds, EGRAG Crypto outlined two possible expansion scenarios. The conservative projection mirrors the 2021 cycle and targets the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
That level would place XRP between $6 and $9. A stronger expansion resembling the 2017 cycle could extend toward the 2.414 to 2.618 Fibonacci range. Those extensions point to a potential target between $20 and $25. Such an outcome would require a broad rotation of liquidity into altcoins and sustained late-cycle momentum.
At the same time, the macro environment remains complex. Oil prices remain above $100 while geopolitical tensions continue, and market sentiment stays in a fear phase. XRP’s long-term structure now returns to a familiar technical position. Two prior cycles followed a similar setup.
Will the third cycle follow the same pattern?
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XRP trades near $1.36 after recording its steepest monthly loss in the current downturn. Analysts now track similarities with the Russell 2000 and monitor the 100-week EMA. Historical cycles show that this level previously preceded strong rallies. Market participants continue watching whether the same technical structure repeats again.