Coal India shares surged over 4% in early trade to reach around Rs. 473.90 after strong Q4 FY26 results. The state-run major recorded a net profit of Rs. 10,839 crore, an 11.15% year-on-year (YoY) growth from Rs. 9,751 crore in the same period last year. Quarter-on-quarter, profit jumped 51.4%, driven by better efficiency and demand recovery in the last quarter.
Total revenue grew 5.8% YoY to Rs. 46,490 crore, driven by 6% higher average realization of Rs. 2,289.58 per tonne despite a 1% decline in sales volumes.
At the operational front, Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) increased 12% to Rs. 17,917 crore. This reflects steady operational performance despite margin pressures.
Coal India also declared a final dividend of Rs. 5.25 per share, making it an attractive high-yield PSU investment.
Production fell slightly, but e-auction volumes (14% of the total volumes) helped lift realizations. Premiums were at 36% in the quarter, although down sequentially amid lower reserve prices.
Analysts are positive on Coal India amid favorable valuations and a high dividend yield.
Motilal Oswal remained positive, citing, “The company's emphasis on enhancing coal-washer capacity will boost its share in domestic coking/non-coking coal." It projects 4% volume CAGR and 5% and 12% CAGR in revenue and EBITDA, respectively, for the period FY26-28. It continued to recommend a ‘Buy’ with a target of Rs. 530.
Jefferies also supported the stock with a 'Buy' rating and target of Rs. 500, saying that "strong summer demand and weak rainfall could support power demand and volumes in FY27," as well as a compelling valuation and a dividend yield of 6%.
Meanwhile, HSBC gave the stock a "Hold" rating and Rs. 440 price target, citing that the "earnings beat was largely driven by higher other income" and warning that increased inventories may cap e-auction premiums.
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Year-to-date, Coal India is up over 17%, by 20% in the last six months, and 18% in the last year. In the long term, it has delivered multibagger returns of 101% and 266% in three and five years, respectively.
At present, the stock is trading at 5x FY28E EV/EBITDA, which is relatively low compared to its peers, given its healthy cash flows and dividend distributions.