Bitcoin and gold sent contrasting signals to markets in late January 2026, as on-chain data pointed to cooling crypto profitability while gold traded near historic highs. The yearly realized profit of Bitcoin started its first compression since 2023, while the cryptocurrency maintained its price below recent market highs. Gold prices remained between $4,950 and $4,970 per ounce after reaching an intraday peak on Friday, January 23, 2026.
The market observed two distinct pricing patterns, which created a main market question about whether Bitcoin profit cycles and gold price peaks showed different patterns of capital risk management.
Bitcoin’s net realized profit and loss chart tracks price alongside the one-year sum of realized profits and losses measured in BTC. Green shading marks profit, while red shading reflects loss. Historically, large market transitions aligned with shifts in this profitability measure. A smoothed 30-day moving average shows broader changes in momentum across cycles.
The profit reached its highest point in March 2022 when Bitcoin prices stayed between $45,000 and $48,000 and traders made 2.5 million BTC in profits. The business experienced its first profitable period before entering its permanent loss period.
The trend shifted in 2024 as Bitcoin recovered. Realized profit turned positive again as prices moved beyond $40,000. By January 2025, profit reached 2.5 million BTC, matching the March 2022 cycle peak. The chart marks this level as a critical horizontal reference.
Profitability continued rising into mid-2025. By October 2025, profit expanded to roughly 4.4 million BTC, the highest level shown.
At that time, Bitcoin traded above $100,000. The data indicated widespread profit realization across the network at peak price levels.
The most recent data into early 2026 shows profit rolling over. The green profit area narrows as the smoothed profitability line trends lower. Prices pulled back while profits stayed positive. Still, the pace of profit realization slowed sharply. Previous cycles show that transitions from rising to falling profit often preceded extended corrective phases.
The chart points to the $80,000 to $84,000 range as a key support zone. This area aligns with prior profit equilibrium levels shown in earlier cycles.
Bitcoin profitability decreased during the period, while gold prices experienced an upward trend. On Friday, January 23, 2026, gold traded around $4,950 to $4,970 an ounce after setting a new intraday high. The weaker U.S. dollar made gold more accessible to buyers outside the United States.
The rate cut expectations supported price increases because gold does not generate any interest payments. Gold becomes more appealing to investors when actual yields drop because they can compare it to interest-earning investments.
Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2026 gold target. The bank cited strong demand from ETFs and continued central bank purchases. The projections showed institutional investors' confidence in gold demand, which would continue to exist beyond the present market conditions.
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Gold and Bitcoin continue to serve different roles. Gold represents long-term preservation and historical store-of-value demand. Bitcoin offers portability and verifiability but carries higher volatility. The data shows no direct requirement for one asset to replace the other.
Market readings in 2025 indicated periods where gold outperformed while Bitcoin stalled. Those moves did not signal a permanent shift away from crypto.
Capital flows often adjust gradually. The data suggests changes in rhythm rather than abrupt exits from either market.
Bitcoin realized profit has begun to compress for the first time since 2023 as on-chain data weakens, while gold trades near record highs supported by ETF demand and central bank buying. The data shows differing asset cycles, suggesting markets are adjusting risk exposure rather than shifting capital outright.