Bitcoin rose above USD 80,000 on October 28, gaining more than 1% in 24 hours ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. ETF inflows and falling exchange balances accompanied the recovery. Yet USD 82,000 resistance and possible U.S. strikes against Iran added uncertainty.
According to market data, Bitcoin traded near USD 80,800 after ranging between USD 79,416 and USD 81,159. Daily volume reached about USD 23.5 billion, while market capitalization exceeded USD 1.62 trillion. The advance had not produced a confirmed breakout.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly USD 110.3 million on October 26, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for most of the inflows. That followed two difficult sessions for the funds.
On October 22 and 23, investors withdrew approximately USD 773.5 million combined, including USD 635.6 million on October 22. Withdrawals coincided with liquidations and Fed policy concerns.
Demand improved again on October 27. According to SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs received USD 176 million, including USD 151.5 million through IBIT. In contrast, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded USD 60.2 million in net withdrawals that day.
Meanwhile, Santiment measured net withdrawals of approximately 14,942 BTC from exchanges, the largest daily outflow in five weeks. The firm said reduced exchange balances could ease immediate selling pressure.
Still, exchange withdrawals do not prove fresh buying. Wallet movements may reflect changes in custody or transfers between platforms. The stronger ETF sessions also followed considerable outflows earlier in the week.
The Federal Reserve is due to announce its interest rate decision on October 28. Markets expect officials to keep the target range at 3.75%–4.00%, following a quarter-point increase in September.
Attention will also turn to Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks on inflation and the prospect of another rate increase in December. Tighter policy guidance could pressure assets sensitive to borrowing costs and market liquidity.
Other events on the economic calendar include third-quarter U.S. GDP figures, September personal consumption expenditures inflation data, and major technology company earnings.
CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno said Bitcoin's spot demand continued to shrink during October, while U.S. investors remained largely inactive. He reported that the firm's Bull Score Index fell from 90 to 60.
Moreno also identified three downside reference points: the 365-day moving average at USD 77,585, the trader-realized price at USD 74,041 and the 200-day moving average at USD 73,028. These levels matter if the market weakens.
Read More: Bitcoin Climbs Near USD 80,800 as Fed Decision Looms
Can Bitcoin reclaim USD 82,000 while demand remains uneven? Analyst Rekt Capital identified USD 81,400 as a key three-day closing level after Bitcoin lost that price as support.
A sustained recovery through that area would bring USD 82,000–82,500 into view. Above the short-term moving averages, USD 84,202 becomes another reference point, followed by resistance near USD 86,000.
On the downside, USD 80,000 remains immediate support. Further losses could bring USD 78,000 and USD 76,000 into focus.
Read More: Bitcoin Climbs Near USD 80,800 as Fed Decision Looms
Separately, Ali Martinez noted that Bitcoin delivered negative fourth-quarter returns in the last three U.S. midterm election years: 2014, 2018 and 2022. That record does not determine its performance in 2026.
Geopolitical concerns added another source of risk. The Wall Street Journal reported on October 28 that U.S. officials warned Gulf countries about a possible short military campaign against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections.
The report described preparations involving regional forces and air-defense systems, but said officials had made no final decision to strike. Renewed conflict could affect oil prices and inflation expectations, complicating the Fed's outlook.
Bitcoin has also shown sensitivity to changes in liquidity and risk appetite, leaving its response to either geopolitical developments or the policy announcement uncertain.
Bitcoin returned above USD 80,000 as ETF demand recovered and Santiment reported substantial exchange withdrawals. Still, resistance near USD 82,000 remains unresolved while spot demand shows weakness. The Federal Reserve decision and reported Iran tensions add uncertainty, with USD 80,000 serving as the immediate price level to watch.