Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss ratio has dropped to a 43-month low, adding fresh attention to on-chain signals that have appeared near past market bottoms. CryptoQuant said the ratio fell to -0.35, a level last seen in December 2022 after the FTX collapse pushed Bitcoin below $16,000.
The latest reading comes as Bitcoin trades near $59,000 after a sharp fall from its October peak of $126,080. Market sentiment has improved slightly over the past 10 days, with Bitcoin rising more than 7% from its June 25 low near $58,190.
CryptoQuant said the Bitcoin realized profit and loss ratio now stands at -0.35. The metric tracks the net share of Bitcoin held in profit or loss compared with total supply. A negative reading shows that losses are dominating realized market activity.
The analytics platform said the indicator has reached similar levels before major recovery phases. “Historically the indicator has marked BTC bottoms with extreme precision,” CryptoQuant said. The firm also pointed to 2015 and 2019, when the ratio moved below -0.35 before Bitcoin later rallied.
The latest reading does not confirm a price bottom. Still, it shows that Bitcoin holders are realizing heavy losses across the market. That type of pressure often appears when leveraged traders exit and weaker holders sell into fear.
Bitcoin’s drop also followed stress linked to Strategy’s Stretch preferred stock. The product fell below its $100 par value and traded under $75, raising questions about its dividend structure. Traders then linked the move to added selling pressure across Bitcoin markets.
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said the market may now be closer to finding a floor. He said the recent Strategy-related sell-off helped remove excess leverage from the system.
“As the market continues to sort things out, I’m convinced the bottom is closer than ever — and that we will enter a new bull market in the fall,” Hougan said. His comments reflect a cautiously positive view, though the market has not confirmed a sustained recovery.
Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston also pointed to Bitcoin’s current level against its realized price. He said Bitcoin is trading only 16% above the realized price, which represents the network’s aggregate on-chain cost basis.
Livingston said similar levels have historically produced stronger forward returns. He cited gains of 41% over six months and 81% over 12 months after comparable setups. Still, past patterns do not guarantee the same outcome.
Livingston also warned that waiting for the exact low may be difficult. “Waiting for ‘the bottom’ is a wonderful plan with one flaw. The bottom never announces itself,” he said. He argued that Bitcoin now trades at a discount, even as buying feels uncomfortable for many investors.
Bitcoin market flows are showing two different trends. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a record $4 billion in outflows in June. That marked the weakest monthly flow since the products launched.
At the same time, large Bitcoin holders bought heavily. Wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC absorbed $16.7 billion worth of Bitcoin over two weeks, according to the data.
The split shows that ETF investors and large wallet holders are acting differently. ETF holders reduced exposure amid weaker risk appetite and shifting macro expectations. Meanwhile, large holders treated the sell-off as a buying window.
Recent ETF data has also improved. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs topped $200 million in daily inflows for the first time since May. That shift suggests some demand has returned after heavy June redemptions.
For now, traders are watching whether whale accumulation continues and ETF flows stabilize. Bitcoin still faces weak sentiment and price uncertainty, but on-chain loss levels now match areas that have appeared near past crypto market cycle lows.
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