JPMorgan continues to project a theoretical Bitcoin price near $170,000 over the next six to twelve months, even after the recent market slide. The bank argues that Strategy’s balance sheet strength now matters more for Bitcoin’s near-term direction than miner activity.

Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou say Bitcoin trades close to its estimated production cost, which currently stands near $90,000. They add that market confidence largely depends on whether Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, avoids selling any of its 650,000 BTC.

JPMorgan’s Bitcoin Model Sees Room for Upside

JPMorgan’s volatility-adjusted Bitcoin-to-gold framework still points to a fair-value scenario around $170,000 if conditions stabilize. The model compares Bitcoin’s market size and volatility to gold and projects potential convergence over time.

Bitcoin recently traded around $91,000 - $92,000, far below that theoretical level but only slightly above the bank’s estimated production cost. JPMorgan cut that cost estimate from $94,000 to $90,000 after hashrate and difficulty dropped, reflecting miner exits and changes in network conditions.

The report links lower hashrate to renewed pressure on mining in China and retreat by high-cost miners elsewhere. As energy prices stay elevated, many producers have sold coins to cover rising expenses, which adds short-term selling pressure to the Bitcoin market.

JPMorgan still views production cost as a “soft floor” for Bitcoin price. However, if the asset trades below that level for an extended period, weaker miners may shut down, pushing the estimated cost base even lower.

Strategy’s mNAV Ratio and Cash Reserve Calm Forced-Selling Fears

Attention has shifted from miners to Strategy (ticker MSTR) and its enterprise-value-to-Bitcoin-holdings ratio, often called mNAV. This ratio, currently 1.13, compares the company’s total enterprise value with the market value of its Bitcoin treasury.

JPMorgan considers a reading above 1.0 reassuring because it suggests limited pressure to liquidate Bitcoin to meet obligations. The bank notes that Strategy has also built a US dollar reserve of about $1.4 billion, which can fund dividend and interest payments for up to two years.

Strategy has slowed its pace of accumulation but continues to add Bitcoin to its balance. The firm now holds nearly 650,000 BTC and remains highly sensitive to price swings in the asset.

Markets also track an upcoming MSCI decision on whether to exclude Strategy and similar digital-asset treasury companies from equity indices. JPMorgan believes much of the downside risk is already reflected after Strategy’s share price fell about 40% since October.

Bitwise CIO Backs Strategy’s Capacity to Hold Bitcoin

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan argues that Strategy will not face forced Bitcoin sales even if its share price drops further. He points out that the company has no major debt maturities until 2027 and holds roughly $1.4 billion in cash.

Hougan also notes that Bitcoin still trades above Strategy’s average acquisition cost, giving additional room before any sale would make economic sense. He compares a hypothetical full liquidation to two years of ETF inflows, a scenario he considers unlikely.

Together, JPMorgan’s model and Strategy’s current financial position frame Bitcoin’s outlook. If Strategy maintains its mNAV ratio above 1.0 and avoids selling, analysts expect market pressure to ease and the long-term $170,000 scenario to remain in focus.

Also Read: Best Crypto Presales: Investors Rush To Tapzi While Bitwise Sparks Debate