Bitcoin and international financial markets are anticipating the release of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Friday, which is expected to be the first significant inflation rate since the government shutdown began on 1 October 2025. It is anticipated that the information will influence the Federal Reserve's next interest rate move, given the persistent uncertainty created by the suspension of various vital economic reports.
Analysts expect a subdued market response to the CPI release. According to Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey Group, the decline in job creation and easing demand are likely to prevent significant market swings. He explained that a slight rise in inflation isn't expected to alter the Fed's monetary policy expectations significantly.
Economists are forecasting a 3.1% increase in headline inflation, up from the previously expected 2.9%, with independent provider Truflation estimating a more petite figure of about 2.28%. This broad range of estimates underscores the uncertainty investors face due to outdated labor statistics, as well as the shutdown.
Market participants are closely monitoring the development of US-China trade relations and their potential impact on inflation. The recent round of reciprocal tariffs has added further complexity to the global economic landscape, prompting investors to pay more attention to business trends and employment data rather than relying solely on inflation indicators.
According to recent statements by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the economy remains resilient despite a slowing labor market. Analysts expect the Fed to consider the general trend of inflation rather than focusing on a single report. The inflationary impacts of tariff changes were already factored into market prices, as noted by Sun, making a steep selloff difficult.
This view was reiterated by Derek Lim, the head of research at Caladan, who also noted that a midpoint CPI figure would probably strengthen the anticipation that the policy would continue to take a consistent direction. He said the most likely result is a weakened response, since macro forces are still at work to fuel sentiment.
Bitcoin is putting pressure ahead of the CPI release, trading at around $111, after briefly hitting an intraday low of $107,500. The cryptocurrency is nearly 11%below its October 6 peak of $126,198, a price that triggered a $19 billion liquidation wave across the market.
Although traditional equity indices such as the S&P 500 are nearing record highs, digital assets appear more vulnerable to macroeconomic uncertainty. Analysts link this to ongoing outflows from exchange-traded funds and cautious investor behavior.
According to Derive, an on-chain options exchange, there is a long-dated skew in 12-month low Bitcoin options, indicating that traders are buying premiums against downside risks. The next CPI report is expected to test the stability of Bitcoin amid the first wave of post-shutdown economic reports.
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