Bitcoin is facing renewed pressure as large holders slow their buying and more investors sit on losses. CryptoQuant says the holding structure among major Bitcoin cohorts is weakening, a setup that has often appeared before longer periods of price weakness.
The report comes as Bitcoin trades near $73,500, about 10% below recent highs. Meanwhile, global stocks have reached record levels, oil prices have fallen, and fears around the US-Iran conflict have eased. However, crypto markets have not followed the broader risk rally.
CryptoQuant said annual balance growth for Bitcoin whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC has turned negative. The research firm described it as the fastest contraction this year. Monthly growth has also stayed flat since February, showing that whales have moved from accumulation toward mild distribution.
This shift matters as whale accounts remain one of Bitcoin’s key sources of structural demand. CryptoQuant said similar periods have appeared before ‘sustained price weakness.’ The firm also compared the current trend with the 2022 bear market, when large holder demand weakened before deeper market stress.
Bitcoin dolphins, defined as wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, still show annual growth. However, CryptoQuant said that growth has slowed sharply. This group includes many exchange-traded funds and corporate treasury buyers, making it an important measure of institutional Bitcoin demand.
Monthly balance growth across whale and dolphin cohorts now sits near zero. Additionally, dolphin balances have printed lower highs since September 2025. CryptoQuant said this shows that the main buyer groups are no longer adding Bitcoin with the same strength seen earlier in the cycle.
Long-term holder supply has reached a record 15.8 million BTC. That figure often supports a bullish view, as it shows that many investors hold Bitcoin for longer periods. However, CryptoQuant said the current record may point to weak market turnover instead of strong new demand.
The firm said short-term holder supply has dropped by about 2.2 million BTC since December. Around 900,000 BTC of that decline came from Coinbase reserves aging beyond the 155-day threshold used to classify long-term holders. That shift does not always mean fresh buying has entered the market.
Instead, CryptoQuant said more coins are simply sitting idle. With fewer new buyers entering the market, Bitcoin remains in existing holders’ wallets for longer. As a result, more supply moves into long-term holder status, even as demand weakens.
HashKey Group researcher Tim Sun said Bitcoin’s unrealized loss ratio recently approached levels last seen near the 2022 market bottom. He said the absolute bottom zone ‘could be around $40,000 to $45,000.’ However, he added that a more realistic bottom range may sit near ‘$55,000 to $60,000,’ if geopolitical tensions do not worsen and the Federal Reserve avoids rate hikes.
Bitcoin has also struggled despite a stronger macro backdrop. Global stocks climbed to record highs, while Brent crude fell after a tentative 60-day extension of the US-Iran ceasefire. Even so, Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin remained weaker over the past week.
Javier Martinez, CEO at sFOX, said the market had already priced in a relief rally from the ceasefire news. He said the trade unwound after Bitcoin failed to break higher. According to Martinez, institutional investors are now watching Washington more closely than Tehran.
Martinez said investors are waiting for US crypto market structure legislation, including the CLARITY Act. “They’re waiting on regulatory confirmation, not just macro improvement,” he said.
Analyst Darkfost also said the current market remains difficult for investors as sentiment shifts quickly within the range. He noted that around 40% of Bitcoin supply was bought at higher prices and now sits at a loss near current levels.
Other indicators also show softer demand. Glassnode said spot demand has weakened, ETF inflows have slowed, and capital flows remain too modest to support a sustained move above key cost-basis levels near $78,000. Moreover, prediction markets show traders expect Bitcoin to stay range-bound, with Polymarket pricing high odds of a close between $72,000 and $76,000.
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