Bitcoin price fell after another rejection near $69,000 as markets reacted to fresh war headlines and a stronger US dollar. Oil moved above $100 per barrel after US President Donald Trump said the military would hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks. At the same time, on-chain data showed that broader Bitcoin demand remained weak despite continued institutional buying.
Bitcoin dropped about 2% on Thursday and traded near $66,200 after failing to hold above the $69,000 level. The move came as traders responded to new signals from Washington on the conflict involving Iran. Stocks and gold also moved lower during the session.
The market expected a softer tone from Trump’s address, but the speech kept the risk of further escalation in focus. Trump said the military was “very close” to reaching its goals and added that the US would hit Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks. This statement maintained pressure on risk assets.
Oil prices climbed again as traders priced in the risk of a longer conflict and tighter supply conditions. Crude rose above $100 per barrel, which added another source of pressure across financial markets. Bitcoin moved in line with the wider risk-off tone.
The US dollar also gained strength during the same period, with traders watching the dollar index move back toward the 100 level. A stronger dollar often creates pressure for Bitcoin and other risk assets because it reflects a move into safer positions. This pattern appeared again during Thursday’s trading.
Trader Aksel Kibar said, “DXY stage is set. We are waiting for that breakout confirmation,” while pointing to 104 as a possible target. This level would mark the highest reading since April 2025. The dollar move, therefore, became another factor behind Bitcoin’s weakness.
Crypto trader BitBull also warned that a new “expansion phase” in the dollar could lead to “new lows” for risk assets. This view added to caution in the market. While Bitcoin remained above recent support, traders kept a close watch on how the dollar behaved during the session.
On-chain data showed that Bitcoin demand stayed under pressure even as institutional buying continued. CryptoQuant said apparent demand was negative by about 63,000 by late last month. This measure tracks whether demand exceeds the supply of newly mined Bitcoin.
According to the report, “Selling from retail and other market participants is more than offsetting incremental institutional buying.” It added that the broader market has remained in distribution since late November 2025. This means new buying has not been strong enough to absorb ongoing selling.
CryptoQuant also said large holders, known as whales, had shifted from accumulation to active selling. After adding around 200,000 Bitcoin during the 2024 bull market, whales began distributing from mid-2025, with selling speeding up in the fourth quarter of 2025. Mid-sized investors also slowed their purchases, while the Coinbase Premium turned negative again, showing weaker demand from US buyers.
Some analysts are also watching Bitcoin’s chart structure for signs of another breakdown. Recent price action has formed a bear flag pattern similar to one seen earlier in 2026. This setup has kept short-term traders cautious.
Keith Alan of Material Indicators said Bitcoin still lacked “directional momentum.” He added, “Structurally, $BTC price action is still nearly identical to the prior bear flag structure.” He said he would keep following the pattern unless the price clearly moved away from it.
Some traders still see room for a short-term rebound if tensions ease. CryptoQuant said, “A de-escalation of geopolitical tensions could serve as a near-term positive catalyst, potentially triggering a relief rally.” Until then, Bitcoin remains under pressure from war headlines, dollar strength, and continued selling by larger holders.
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