Bitcoin’s long-term price structure has drawn renewed attention after a chart shared on X by crypto analyst Chiefy pointed to similarities with earlier market cycles. The chart tracks Bitcoin against the U.S. dollar from 2017 through projected levels into 2028. It marks three bull-market peaks, followed by steep corrective phases. The data suggests Bitcoin could face another slide toward $35,000 within days if the pattern holds. Could the market be approaching a repeat of its deepest historical drawdowns?
The chart establishes Bitcoin's first major cycle peak at $21,000 during the final months of 2017. After that point, Bitcoin began an extended period of decreasing value. The price dropped approximately 84.90% to support a rising long-term trend line.
The support line connects to a larger ascending channel structure. The channel has controlled Bitcoin's overall price movements since it began almost ten years ago. The entire market cycle pattern has maintained its structure throughout both rising and falling market phases.
The second cycle was developed during 2020 and 2021. Bitcoin climbed rapidly and peaked near $69,000. A sharp correction followed. Price fell roughly 77.15% and retraced toward the same ascending support line during 2022.
The latest cycle shows Bitcoin topping near $126,000. That level aligns closely with the upper boundary of the long-term ascending channel. After the peak, the price reversed quickly and began trending lower.
The projected drawdown from the $126,000 high measures about 72.65%. This move points to a potential decline toward the $35,000 region. On the chart, that area aligns with long-term structural support.
Chiefy stated alongside the chart that Bitcoin is “perfectly mirroring the pattern from 2017 and 2021.” Based on the pace of earlier cycle declines, the analyst said the move toward $35,000 could unfold within roughly ten days.
At the same time, market indicators suggest selective dip buying. The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has rebounded from deeply negative levels. It rose from around -0.22% during the sell-off to about -0.05% by Tuesday.
The index tracks the price gap between Bitcoin traded on Coinbase and the global market average. Traders often view it as a proxy for U.S.-based institutional and dollar-denominated flows.
Although the premium remains below zero, the rebound indicates some U.S. investors stepped in as forced selling eased. Bitcoin had just recorded its fastest drawdown since the collapse of FTX in 2022.
Read More: Bitcoin Slides to 16-Month Low: What’s Next for BTC?
Market activity shows limited movement even though prices have returned to their previous levels. According to Kaiko data, aggregate trading volumes on major exchanges remain below the trading levels that occurred in late 2025. The spot market shows decreasing activity because there is no evidence of new demand.
The market experiences intense price fluctuations because selling pressure leads to sharp upward movements, which occur during periods of low liquidity. The situation enables price drops to occur again.
Bitcoin is trading just under $70,000 after rebounding more than 15% from its intraday low. The asset shows a weekly decline of more than 10% because market participants maintain their cautious approach to trading.
What investors need to know is that Bitcoin’s long-term price chart shows repeating cycle behavior seen in 2017 and 2021, with steep drawdowns following major peaks. Current data points to downside risk toward $35,000, while U.S. buying remains cautious. Market structure and liquidity conditions suggest heightened volatility remains likely in the near term.