Bitcoin’s network hashrate has dropped 4% in the last 30 days, and it’s the sharpest decline since April 2024, according to analysts at VanEck. The pullback coincided with weaker prices, yet historical data show that similar periods are associated with stronger forward returns for Bitcoin. VanEck said miner capitulation has often acted as a bullish contrarian signal when measured over multi-month horizons.

The firm noted that sustained hashrate compression has preceded positive price performance more frequently than periods of rising hashrate. Bitcoin traded near $88,400 at the time of the report, nearly 30% below its Oct. 6 peak of $126,080, according to CoinGecko data. Against this backdrop, the data raises a central question: could reduced mining activity set the stage for stronger Bitcoin returns in the coming months?

Miner Capitulation and Forward Return Patterns

VanEck analysts linked recent hashrate weakness to historical performance trends observed since 2014. They reported that Bitcoin posted positive 90-day returns 65% of the time when the hashrate declined during the prior 30 days. By comparison, positive returns occurred 54% of the time when the hashrate increased over the same lookback period.

The pattern extended further when analysts examined longer horizons. Negative 90-day hashrate growth preceded positive 180-day Bitcoin returns 77% of the time. Those periods delivered an average gain of 72%, exceeding the 61% positive return rate seen during rising hashrate phases.

VanEck crypto research lead Matt Sigel and senior investment analyst Patrick Bush said prolonged compression often aligns with stronger outcomes. They stated that such phases tend to favor future price recovery rather than extended sell-offs.

Digital Asset Treasuries Step in as ETP Holdings Fall

The report also tracked changes in demand from Bitcoin Digital Asset Treasuries.
From mid-November to mid-December, DATs added about 42,000 BTC, a 4% monthly increase.
Aggregate DAT holdings reached 1.09 million BTC, the largest accumulation since mid-2025.

Most recent purchases came from Strategy, which accounted for 29,400 BTC during the period.
VanEck said the strategy retained flexibility to issue common stock because its mNAV remained above 1. Looking ahead, analysts expect more DATs to shift toward preferred share issuance for funding.

Japan-based Metaplanet scheduled a shareholder vote on Dec. 22 to approve the issuance of preferred stock. The funds would support Bitcoin purchases and operating expenses. In contrast, Bitcoin ETP investors reduced exposure, with holdings falling by about 120 basis points month over month to 1.308 million BTC.

Also Read: BTC’s Quantum Upgrade May Take Up to 10 Years, Say Developers

On-Chain Holder Behavior and Global Mining Shifts

VanEck also analyzed on-chain data tied to Bitcoin holder behavior. Medium-term cohorts showed notable declines in balance across the 1–2-year, 2–3-year, and 3–5-year age bands.
By contrast, the oldest holders showed limited change, with balances above 5 years largely stable.

When viewed broadly, coins unmoved for more than six months declined by about 190 basis points. Still, tokens held for over 10 years increased slightly, suggesting long-term conviction remained intact. VanEck said the data points to selling by short- and medium-term participants rather than veteran holders.

The analysts attributed the hashrate drop partly to the shutdown of about 1.3 gigawatts of mining capacity in China. They added that rising AI-related power demand could displace up to 10% of Bitcoin’s hashrate. Even so, Sigel and Bush estimated that at least 13 countries now support Bitcoin mining, including Russia, France, Bhutan, Iran, El Salvador, the UAE, Oman, Ethiopia, Argentina, Kenya, and Japan.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s hashrate fell 4% in December, a move VanEck links to historically stronger forward returns during miner capitulation phases. Data also shows steady buying by Digital Asset Treasuries while long-term holders largely remain firm. Together, these trends frame a cautious yet constructive market setup.