Bitcoin continues to display a widening gap between derivatives activity and spot demand as macro uncertainty shapes investor behavior. Recent geopolitical tension involving the United States and Iran pushed markets into a risk-off phase, while spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded more than $85 million in net outflows after three consecutive days of inflows.
At the same time, Bitcoin's Coinbase Premium Index turned negative, signaling softer U.S. spot demand. Although the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained above extreme fear levels, historical bear-market data suggest the current cycle may still have room to continue.
Bitcoin's latest market structure shows derivatives activity recovering faster than demand in the spot market. Data indicate that Bitcoin's 30-day cumulative demand improved from nearly -500,000 BTC to around -75,000 BTC.
Even so, futures markets accounted for nearly the entire recovery. Futures demand climbed from about negative 295,000 BTC to slightly above zero, while spot demand remained near negative 78,000 BTC.
Meanwhile, Tether minted another $1 billion worth of USDT despite the broader stablecoin market continuing to contract. Instead of flowing directly into Bitcoin purchases, much of that liquidity appears to remain on the sidelines as investors hold capital in reserve.
Consequently, the additional liquidity could increase derivatives activity rather than strengthen spot buying. That trend leaves speculative positioning ahead of genuine market demand.
Market conditions shifted after renewed geopolitical uncertainty affected investor sentiment. As a result, institutions reduced exposure, leading spot Bitcoin ETFs to post net outflows exceeding $85 million.
Likewise, Bitcoin's Coinbase Premium Index moved below zero, indicating weaker buying interest from U.S. investors. The change points to greater caution among institutional participants as broader market risks increased.
Although the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stayed above extreme fear territory, historical comparisons present a different picture. Bitcoin's current bear market has lasted 248 days, while the 2022 and 2018 bear markets extended for 381 and 385 days, respectively.
Therefore, previous market cycles suggest the current downturn remains shorter than earlier bear markets despite recent improvements in derivatives demand.
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Bitcoin mining companies have also adjusted their strategies following pressure on profitability since the April 2024 halving. Many firms redirected energy infrastructure toward artificial intelligence operations to improve revenue.
According to a July 9, 2026, report from Blocksbridge Consulting, executives and board members at several mining companies sold large amounts of company stock during this transition.
By the end of 2025, the Bitcoin network's hash rate had reached a record 1,160 EH/s, increasing competition across the industry. CoinShares reported that publicly listed mining companies faced an average production cost of about $80,000 per Bitcoin during the fourth quarter of 2025.
As costs increased, between 15% and 20% of older ASIC mining machines reportedly operated at a loss. In response, several companies converted energy resources to power AI-focused supercomputers.
One major example involved TeraWulf, which signed a 20-year lease agreement with Anthropic valued at nearly $19 billion. Besides expanding into AI, some mining companies also sold Bitcoin holdings to finance new investments.
Marathon Digital Holdings sold more than 15,000 BTC from its institutional treasury, with its latest reported Bitcoin sale occurring in April 2026. The reported transactions reflect the capital demands associated with expanding AI infrastructure while mining economics remain under pressure.
Bitcoin’s recovery remains driven mainly by derivatives activity while spot demand stays weak. ETF outflows, a negative Coinbase Premium Index, and ongoing macro uncertainty suggest the broader Bitcoin bear market may still be active. Investors may need to monitor leverage, institutional demand, and miner liquidity closely before expecting a sustained recovery.