Bitcoin price has moved back above $63,000 after a sharp yearly decline, while analysts compare its performance against gold. Adam Livingston, an advisor to Saturn Credit, said Bitcoin could reach $256,000 within 12 months if the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio returns to its long-term fair value.
Livingston said the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio is now about 76% below its long-term power-law fair value. Based on that model, Bitcoin would need to rise roughly four times against gold to return to fair value. That calculation places the Bitcoin price target near $256,000 within 12 months.
However, Livingston also noted that the target depends on gold price stability. “If gold keeps falling, the implied Bitcoin target would drop lower,” the analysis stated. The forecast therefore does not stand as a fixed price call. It depends on both Bitcoin demand and gold’s next trend.
Livingston compared the current setup with past periods when Bitcoin traded well below the model’s fair value against gold. He pointed to rallies after the 2015 bear market low, the 2020 COVID crash, and the 2022 FTX collapse. In those cases, Bitcoin gained 176%, 1,087%, and 159% over the following year.
Meanwhile, market analyst Ash Crypto said the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio may be repeating earlier cycle behavior. In a post on X, the analyst said the ratio bottomed after 10 red monthly candles from its peak in both the 2018 and 2022 cycles.
Since the November 2024 peak, Bitcoin against gold has now closed 10 red monthly candles. “If the pattern holds, the bottom could be in,” Ash Crypto wrote. The analyst added that Bitcoin has held higher against gold since February 2026 despite the US-Iran war, high inflation, and Fed uncertainty.
However, the post framed the pattern as conditional rather than certain. “If history repeats,” capital could rotate from gold into Bitcoin over the next two to three years. That wording leaves room for doubt, as the market still needs confirmation through price action and volume.
Bitcoin has fallen more than 28% year-to-date, trading near $63,071 after gaining 3.13% over 24 hours. Gold has dropped nearly 6% year-to-date and trades around $4,078 per ounce after losing support near $4,400.
Bitcoin’s latest move followed a better-than-expected US core inflation report. May core CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, while the monthly reading cooled to 0.2%. The data eased concerns over more aggressive Federal Reserve policy and supported risk assets.
The rally also came as Bitcoin outperformed the broader crypto market. Its dominance rate rose to 59%, showing stronger capital preference for Bitcoin while major altcoins such as Ether and Solana lagged below key technical levels.
For now, traders are watching the $62,000 support area. A hold above that level could bring a test of $64,009 resistance. A drop below the $59,109 swing low could expose Bitcoin to a deeper move toward the realized price near $53,600.
Separately, Morgan Stanley’s head of digital asset strategy, Amy Oldenberg, said a $1 million Bitcoin is possible over time. However, she warned that such a move would likely need either a long adoption cycle or a major disruption in traditional markets.
“I don’t see why we couldn’t,” Oldenberg said when asked about a seven-figure Bitcoin. She added, “Anything that extreme needs to happen over time,” noting that a sharp move could also signal stress elsewhere in the financial system.
Oldenberg said institutional Bitcoin adoption may advance through product access, custody, adviser education, and client demand. She said the process may look more like a gradual rise than a sudden vertical move.
Morgan Stanley’s model portfolio guidance has stayed measured, with Bitcoin allocations ranging from 0% to 2% in some portfolios and 2% to 4% in more aggressive ones. That cautious approach shows that institutional access is growing, while price targets still depend on market structure, regulation, and demand.
Also Read: Bitcoin Stabilizes Near $63,041 as ETF Outflows Hit Record Streak, Fed Rate Hike Fears Grip Market