Bitcoin may be repeating the same pattern seen during the 2021 bull run, according to a detailed comparison from analyst Leshka.eth. The analyst shared a chart that aligns both market cycles and shows nearly identical topping structures, cycle reactions, and support retests. The comparison suggests that a new bull trap may be forming and that the price may soon face sharp declines if support breaks again.
The chart shows two rounded tops in the 2021 cycle. Bitcoin rose above prior highs, tapped resistance twice, then reversed into a clear bull trap, as shown in the pink zone. After the reversal, the price fell through the cycle support marked in green and entered a long decline into 2022.
The analyst applied the same structure to the 2025 cycle. Bitcoin again formed two tops near $120,000 and $130,000. The updated chart marks the cycle support area at the same structural position as the 2021 chart. A new pink diamond appears at the same level as the 2021 bull trap, which suggests a similar setup may be emerging.
The projection below the chart shows a steep drop. The path moves through cycle support, then trends toward $50,000, with ongoing volatility, into mid-2026. The analyst added a caption stating, “exactly the same cycle as 2021… bull trap is loading… then $BTC falls to $40,000.”
The post references whale and retail delta behavior. Whale activity appears to shift as whales cut long positions or move short. Retail flows turn positive during the same period, suggesting stronger retail demand as the price compresses near resistance. This pattern mirrors earlier cycle behavior.
The price scale spans from $20,000 to $130,000 on the right axis, which frames all levels within the cycle comparison. The bottom right of the chart includes the analyst’s tag, leshka.eth.
Bitcoin traders now evaluate both directions. The Economist reported that long trades require confirmation above near-term resistance. A clean breakout is needed to confirm structural control and reduce false-break risk near the compression zone.
The report said the upper targets align with higher resistance zones. Pullbacks remain valid as long as the price stays above reclaimed support. Long positioning inside the compression zone carries more risk, so traders wait for confirmation before building large exposure.
Short traders still see an opportunity while the price remains capped under resistance. The report said that rejection from overhead liquidity and slowing recovery strength may give short trades room toward lower support zones.
The report added that strong bids exist under the price, so short trades require tight risk management because sharp buy reactions remain possible. Bitcoin no longer falls freely, yet it has not regained bullish strength either.
The current pattern shows a transition period. Sellers lose dominance, yet buyers have not established full control. The report said the next trend depends on whether the price moves above $93,000 or below $86,000. The market sits in a delicate zone where shifts in liquidity decide direction. One question now shapes the debate: Will Bitcoin break the structure or repeat the 2021 collapse?
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Bitcoin’s 2025 structure mirrors the 2021 bull trap pattern, with resistance zones, cycle support, and shifting trader positioning shaping the next move. The market now waits for a decisive break above $93,000 or below $86,000. Traders should monitor liquidity levels closely as direction may form quickly.