Over the weekend, Bitcoin declined to a six-month low as liquidity became theoretical, heavy liquidation ensued, and rates resumed pushing the market. Prices dipped by almost $93,000 early Sunday, recovering toward $95,285. This was the lowest level since May, as liquidity decreased further and macro uncertainty persisted.
The cryptocurrency market saw strain over the past 24 hours as traders faced broad liquidations. CoinGlass recorded $619 million in total liquidations, with Bitcoin accounting for $243 million. Market sentiment weakened quickly. The Fear & Greed Index dropped to 10, signaling extreme fear among traders.
Derek Lim, research lead at Caladan, linked the weekend drop to tightening liquidity. He noted that liquidity remains tight because the U.S. government shutdown elevated the Treasury General Account. This restricted dollar flow across financial markets. Lim believes this constraint may ease as soon as government spending resumes and delayed payments return to circulation.
He added that Japan is considering a 17 trillion yen stimulus package. This package, worth $110 billion, may strengthen global liquidity. Traders watched these developments closely as liquidity remains a dominant market force.
A new CryptoQuant chart shared by Maartunn showed that Bitcoin still trades above key ETF cost-basis metrics. The chart tracked bitcoin’s price, the realized price of bitcoin ETFs, and the ETF MVRV ratio from early 2024 to November 2025. Bitcoin recently pulled back from levels near $125,000 toward the low $90,000 zone.
Yet the realized ETF price continued its steady rise. It now sits at $86,680. Maartunn noted that Bitcoin trades about 9% above the average ETF buyer cost basis. Investors holding ETFs remain in profit despite volatility.
The ETF MVRV ratio moved between 1.0 and 2.8 during the observed period. This range showed persistent profitability among ETF participants. Additionally, long-term accumulation patterns remained intact as ETF inflows held firm until last week. This raised an important question: can Bitcoin sustain current levels if liquidity tightens further?
Edward Carroll, head of markets at MHC Digital Group, also pointed to deepening liquidity stress. He said treasury bill spreads and repo markets sent signals similar to late 2018 and 2019. Crypto markets reacted earlier than traditional markets due to their sensitivity to rapid liquidity changes.
Shifting interest rate expectations also weighed on the market. The reduced probability of another U.S. rate cut in December renewed caution. This shift coincided with $1.1 billion flowing out of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs last week. Traders responded quickly as funding conditions tightened.
Carroll added that crypto’s medium-term outlook remains constructive. He pointed to bitcoin’s role as digital gold, expectations for a liquidity rebound and growing institutional involvement. He said the current move reflects tight funding rather than changing fundamentals. He also noted that digital assets tend to rebound first when liquidity improves.
Related: Bitcoin Price Stays in Mid-$90,000 Range After Losing $450 Billion in Market Value
Bitcoin reaching a six-month low reflects tight liquidity, heavy liquidations and re-shifting rate expectations. Analysts however noted that ETF metrics remain strong and long-holders are still profitable. The takeaway is simple - liquidity will determine the next big move, therefore traders need to closely monitor funding conditions.