A US demand indicator has shifted, suggesting early relief for Bitcoin after nearly ten weeks of negative readings. The Coinbase Premium Gap moved back into positive territory after a run of negative data that matched Bitcoin’s drop from about $95,000 to below $65,000 in February. The recent positive readings are small compared with the prior slump but point to renewed interest from US traders.
Analysts say certain US investors may be slowly rebuilding Bitcoin positions. On-chain signals show tentative improvement, while many experts remain cautious about declaring the broader downturn over.
Bitcoin rose above $74,000 on Monday, erasing nearly $300 million in short positions. Illia Otychenko of CEX.IO noted that prices above $72,000 put short-term holders back in profit on average. That shift matters because short-term selling pressure had limited previous gains. If prices fall again, newly profitable holders could return to losses and sell, increasing short-term volatility.
Market focus turns to the Federal Open Market Committee as the Fed meets and Chair Jerome Powell speaks on Wednesday. The CME FedWatch tool currently prices in near certainty that rates will remain at 3.5% to 3.75%. The decision itself may not surprise markets. Investors will parse Powell’s tone for clues on how the Fed views inflationary pressures tied to the Middle East conflict.
Oil rose above $105 a barrel on Sunday, adding another variable to the Fed’s balancing act. Traders also showed interest in contracts that priced Brent crude near $145, signaling bets on higher oil. The Producer Price Index on Wednesday will offer another inflation snapshot. Home sales and jobless claims later in the week will test the resilience of the US economy.
Policymakers at the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank, Sweden’s Riksbank, and the Reserve Bank of Australia will also deliver rate announcements this week. Officials are expected to hold rates steady while monitoring geopolitical risks and inflation.
Also Read: Bitcoin Trades Above its 50-day EMA at $74,065.48
US political commentary is adding to market tension. President Donald Trump criticized Fed leadership on social media this week, renewing public pressure on central bank communications. We expect corporate earnings from Micron Technology, FedEx, and Dollar Tree to influence risk appetite and reveal consumer strength.
Bitcoin’s pattern shows some resilience amid geopolitical strain. Despite trading about 42% below its October peak, the asset has outperformed major US indices and gold since the Iran conflict began. Bitcoin gained roughly 12% since the start of the conflict, while other benchmarks lagged. Analysts caution that short-term holder behavior and macro signals will influence whether this resilience holds.
Can renewed US demand and central bank signals sustain a lasting Bitcoin recovery, or will volatility return as geopolitical and macro risks evolve?
Bitcoin shows early signs of US demand recovery as the Coinbase Premium Gap turns positive and short-term holders regain profit. Investors watch Federal Reserve decisions, oil prices, and geopolitical risks for potential market direction. Market caution remains amid possible volatility.