Bitcoin recorded its strongest monthly gain in one year during April 2026, rising 11.87% as spot Bitcoin ETF inflows strengthened. The rally came as BTC moved from nearly $66,000 to around $78,000. However, analysts remain divided on whether the move can extend toward higher levels or face another correction.
Bitcoin closed April with an 11.87% gain, marking its best monthly performance in 12 months. The move also came close to Bitcoin’s long-term April average gain of 12.98%, based on historical market data.
BTC traded near $78,000 after starting the month around $66,000. The move gave traders some relief after a long period of weak monthly closes. Bitcoin also recorded its second green monthly candle after five straight red months.
Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades said, “April is done. May is here. After 5 consecutive red monthly candles, Bitcoin has now closed 2 in the green, causing some relief in the market.” However, the quote shows that traders still view the recovery with caution.
Bitcoin remains about 38% below its October peak of $125,100. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index also stood at 39, showing that market confidence has not fully recovered.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.44 billion in net inflows during April. That figure was almost double the $1.32 billion recorded in March.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust led the market and captured more than 70% of total ETF inflows. Total assets across US spot Bitcoin ETFs reached nearly $102 billion by the end of April.
In addition, institutional demand remained a key driver of Bitcoin’s April move. ETF flows gave the market fresh support while traders watched the $78,000 to $80,500 resistance area.
Market analyst Don said a move above $80,500 would “invalidate the bearish pattern of the ascending channel.” Still, the statement shows that Bitcoin has not yet cleared a key technical barrier.
Some analysts expect Bitcoin to test higher levels if it holds current support. Ted Pillows said the $75,000 level has acted as strong support in recent weeks.
He added that Bitcoin now faces a major test around $78,000 to $80,000. If BTC reclaims that range, he expects the price to move toward the CME gap near $86,000.
However, the bearish case remains active. Pillows said rejection near $80,000 could send Bitcoin toward $70,000. A deeper pullback could also take the price near $66,318.
Another analyst, Merlijn The Trade, gave a more cautious view. He warned traders to “sell in May and go away,” based on past cycle patterns. His view suggests Bitcoin could face a deeper correction if May repeats older market structures.
CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin gained about 30% since February, but demand has not fully confirmed a new bull cycle. Its apparent demand metric remains negative by about 44,700 BTC.
That reading means demand has not yet absorbed new supply. However, the deficit narrowed from about 89,000 BTC at the start of April, showing that accumulation has improved.
Short-term data looks stronger. Spot buyer activity has led the market for four straight days, while exchange netflows showed about 1,995 BTC in accumulation from May 1. Meanwhile, options pricing showed only a 25% chance of BTC reaching $84,000 by the end of May.
Macroeconomic risks still weigh on the market. Federal Reserve policy uncertainty, geopolitical tension, and crude oil pressure continue to limit confidence as traders watch whether Bitcoin can hold its April gains.
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