Bitcoin’s long-term holders are showing signs of stress after this month’s sharp sell-off. On February 6, the price fell to $62,800, creating pressure similar to the May 2022 LUNA crash, according to Glassnode. The on-chain analytics firm described the shift as a rare change in conviction often seen in deeper bear market phases. At the same time, key macro data and diverging analyst forecasts have left traders questioning where the next support level may form.
Glassnode reported that the 7-day exponential moving average of the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio dropped below 1. This metric shows veteran investors now realize losses when they move coins.
Long-term holders often act as the market’s strongest participants. In previous cycles, they formed the final layer of support during capitulation events. Their selling has historically marked periods of wealth transfer and cycle bottoms.
Now that this group sits underwater, the search for the next floor intensifies. Glassnode identified $54,000 as the next critical support level if current weakness continues.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has traded around $68,000 for most of February. Since October, cryptocurrencies have lost about $2 trillion in total value. Bitcoin alone has declined 46% during that stretch.
Recent US economic data added fresh uncertainty. The economy added 130,000 jobs in January, which reduced expectations for a near-term rate cut. Risk assets moved lower following the report.
Inflation slowed to 2.4%. However, the reading failed to spark a recovery rally in Bitcoin.
Markets currently assign a 90% probability that the Federal Funds Rate will remain unchanged in March, based on CME’s FedWatch tool. As a result, traders continue to watch macro signals closely.
At the same time, a broader sell-off in technology stocks has weighed on sentiment. Fears of an artificial intelligence spending bubble have increased trading in credit default swaps, according to Bloomberg data.
Credit default swaps function as insurance contracts that pay out if a company fails to repay debt. Almost $900 million of Alphabet’s debt and nearly $700 million of Meta’s debt are now tied to these contracts. A year ago, traders barely used them.
Despite the pressure, some market participants see resilience. Sean McNulty, APAC derivatives trading lead at FalconX, argued that $60,000 could hold as the near-term cycle floor.
He cited healthy buying flows and said a large wall of buyers absorbed short-term holder capitulation. He described the recent drop as orderly deleveraging rather than a systemic failure.
According to McNulty, the absence of a collapse similar to FTX reduces the risk of a deeper breakdown. Extreme pessimism during the sell-off also supports his case.
Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, also projects a rebound toward $100,000. He noted that while buying volumes have slowed, investors still purchase more Bitcoin than miners produce each day.
Young said this net-positive supply dynamic could trigger a near-term recovery.
In contrast, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone sees further downside. He projected that Bitcoin could lose up to 85% of its value and trade as low as $10,000.
Also Read: Will Bitcoin Hit $50K? Standard Chartered Says More Downside Possible
McGlone linked that outlook to rising stocks, reduced volatility, and gold and silver outperforming Bitcoin as safe-haven assets. He also argued that fading faith in US President Donald Trump’s crypto support may pressure prices.
Meanwhile, Ben Harvey, a researcher at Keyrock, said macro factors will likely determine Bitcoin’s next direction. He pointed to potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and institutional inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds as key drivers.
With long-term holders now selling at a loss and macro uncertainty building, the market faces a pivotal question: will Bitcoin defend $60,000 or slide toward $54,000 next?
Bitcoin faces pressure as long-term holders sell at a loss, and Glassnode shows SOPR below 1. Analysts remain divided, with $60,000 seen as near-term support and $54,000 flagged as the next key level. Macro data and Federal Reserve policy now shape the path ahead.