Bitcoin slid sharply over the weekend as broader markets turned risk-averse and analysts flagged signs of a late-stage crypto downturn. Prices briefly fell to $74,532 after breaking below $81,000, triggering heavy liquidations. Analysts at Compass Point said downside risks remain but argued that the market may be approaching the final phase of the current bear cycle.
They said a deeper drop likely needs a U.S. equity bear market. Their base case places a Bitcoin bottom between $60,000 and $68,000, a zone that previously drew steady buying from long-term holders across past cycles, based on on-chain ownership data.
Now, the question is: What would it take for Bitcoin to fall meaningfully below that long-term support?
Compass Point analysts said the $70,000-80,000 range now acts as an “air pocket” with limited structural support. Less than 1% of long-term holder supply entered at those prices. As a result, selling pressure may persist if prices remain in that band. The analysts said long-term holders acquired about 7% of the supply between $60,000 and $68,000.
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds added pressure during the decline. ETFs recorded $3 billion in net outflows since January 15, pushing more than half of assets underwater. That trend may keep outflows elevated. Analysts said the $81,000 to $83,000 zone now serves as overhead resistance tied to ETF investor cost bases.
If prices fall below the $60,000 to $68,000 range, analysts point to $55,000 as the next level. That scenario aligns with historical bear markets that dipped below the average buyer cost.
Bitcoin’s drop matched a wider risk-off move across global markets. U.S. equities fell late last week, led by technology stocks after Microsoft's disappointing earnings. That weakness spilled into European and Asian markets on Monday. At the same time, traditional safe havens failed to provide shelter during the sell-off.
Gold and silver posted historic losses, with silver suffering its worst single-day drop since 1980. Analysts linked the move to a stronger U.S. dollar. Shifting expectations around U.S. monetary policy also weighed on markets. The nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell added to volatility.
Thin weekend liquidity amplified price swings. That environment triggered forced liquidations across crypto derivatives markets.
According to Coinglass, more than $2 billion in Bitcoin long and short positions have been liquidated since Thursday. All crypto liquidations reached $2.56 billion on Saturday alone. Liquidations occur when leveraged traders face automatic position closures as prices fall. That process can intensify selling pressure during fast declines. Institutional investors also reduced exposure. CoinShares reported $1.7 billion in outflows from digital asset products over two weeks.
Those outflows erased all year-to-date inflows and pushed 2026 flows into negative territory. Bitcoin and Ethereum products led withdrawals. Meanwhile, short Bitcoin products and tokenized precious metals recorded inflows. That pattern suggests rising demand for downside protection.
Amid the turbulence, Binance confirmed a purchase of 1,315 bitcoin worth about $100 million. The move forms part of a plan to convert its SAFU reserve into BTC. Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao said he had lost confidence in a 2026 Bitcoin supercycle. He cited market turmoil and intense fear across the sector.
Community members accused Zhao of selling Bitcoin during the decline. They also linked Binance-related events to a past liquidation cascade. Corporate holders faced scrutiny as well. Bitcoin briefly dipped below Strategy’s average purchase price, placing attention on its treasury strategy.
Analysts said there is no forced selling risk. Strategy does not pledge its Bitcoin holdings as collateral.
Read More: Crypto Market Update: Bitcoin Slides Below $80K as Liquidations Rock Crypto Markets
Bitcoin prices fell as ETF outflows rose and liquidations swept derivatives markets during a global risk-off move. Analysts placed key support between $60,000 and $68,000 while warning that deeper losses would likely require an equity bear market. Market participants now closely monitor liquidity flows and risk sentiment.