Bitcoin hovered near $92,000 on Tuesday as technical signals hinted at a cautious bullish shift. Traders weighed unusually low volatility against looming U.S. inflation data and interest rate uncertainty; the TradingView chart, shared on X by analyst Jip Molenaar, shows Bitcoin recovering from a sharp sell-off earlier in the week.
Price action reflects improving structure, yet positioning remains restrained. At the same time, macro expectations around Federal Reserve policy and inflation data are adding another layer of risk. This backdrop leaves traders balancing chart-based signals with broader economic uncertainty.
Bitcoin is trading near $92,036 after rebounding from a decline that began around the $94,000 region. Early selling pressure drove prices into a corrective phase before buyers stepped in, which later stabilized between $90,000 and $91,000. Repeated downside attempts failed, forming a visible base and reducing immediate selling momentum.
The chart marks a manipulation zone below $90,500. Prices briefly swept liquidity there, then reversed sharply higher, suggesting absorption rather than sustained distribution. That move aligned with a labeled SMT region, with a strong impulsive bounce confirming short-term demand from lower levels.
Following the rebound, Bitcoin printed a market structure shift on lower time frames. This change signaled a transition from correction toward possible continuation. Prices then formed higher lows, reclaiming the $91,500 to $92,000 zone. These steps strengthened the near-term bullish bias without confirming a breakout.
A major resistance level sits near $94,400, drawn across prior highs. The projected path suggests a brief pullback before another test of that level. Molenaar also wrote, “$BTC plan. Flipping cautiously bullish. No new longs yet” – this comment reflects improving structure with continued patience.
Despite technical improvement, Bitcoin volatility remains subdued. Flat price actions suggest traders expect limited movement ahead of major macro events. Analysts point to Federal Reserve expectations as a potential blind spot.
Markets currently price a low chance of near-term rate cuts. “Risk into tomorrow's CPI print feels a bit asymmetric,” said Quinn Thompson, the chief investment officer at Lekker Capital. He also noted that markets expect a roughly 60% chance of no further cuts. Thompson added how the odds for only one cut before midterms appear low, referencing the influence of new Federal Reserve appointee Stephen Miran.
The Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index backs up that warning. It remains around 43, which is not far from the lowest levels from the last few years. Low implied volatility tells us the market participants do not expect any significant catalyst. Additionally, it indicates the possibility of mispricing if macro expectations change drastically and suddenly.
Are markets underestimating the risk of a volatility surge tied to inflation data?
Some analysts argue markets have priced rate cuts way too conservatively. They highlight the mixed economic signals ahead of the CPI release. “Markets are underpricing the odds of a rate cut,” said Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.
The CME FedWatch Tool shows just a 5% chance of a January 28 cut. Dawson estimated the probability closer to 10%, citing the December job growth of only 50,000 positions. That marked the weakest annual growth since 2003. At the same time, core inflation remains near 2.6%, above the Federal Reserve’s target.
Tariffs and last year’s government shutdown distorted recent data. These factors elevate the importance of the current CPI release. Political pressure contributes to this uncertainty, including the Department of Justice's criminal lawsuit against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
In unison, the technical setup and macro backdrop are keeping Bitcoin traders on their toes, with the turning of the charts from bearish to cautiously bullish while broader risks are still not resolved.
Read More: Bitcoin Price Trades Near $92,000 as Market Awaits Breakout
Bitcoin trades near $92,000 as charts point to a cautious bullish shift after a liquidity sweep and structure change. Resistance near $94,400 remains key; meanwhile, low implied volatility and CPI risk suggest markets may misprice Federal Reserve rate expectations, urging traders to stay patient and data-focused.