Bitcoin entered May with fresh momentum after two green months, placing the market near a rare three-month winning streak. CoinGlass data shared by Trader_XO showed BTC up 3.18% in May at the time of the snapshot, after gains in March and April.
The setup has drawn attention because Bitcoin has posted green returns only once in March, April, and May consecutively. That happened in 2019, according to the dataset shared by Trader_XO.
Trader_XO said May has delivered positive Bitcoin returns about 60% of the time, or eight of the past 13 years. The post also cited an average May return near 8%. The CoinGlass table gave the seasonal view more detail. Its visible average row listed May at 7.82%, behind October, November, and April among the stronger months.
Still, the data showed wide gaps between strong and weak years. May delivered gains above 52% in 2017 and 2019, yet fell 35.31% in 2021 and 15.6% in 2022.
Bitcoin fell 10.17% in January and another 14.94% in February, according to the CoinGlass snapshot. Then, it recovered with a 1.81% gain in March and an 11.87% advance in April. As a result, the market entered May with a cleaner recovery structure. Trader_XO noted that May opened around the 76.3K level and asked whether the month would end positively.
The debate moved beyond numbers in the replies. StrongHedge said context mattered because Bitcoin had “pico-bottomed" in 2019 and then started a new uptrend. Trader_XO agreed with that view.
At the same time, Bitcoin has continued to rally despite conditions that often pressure risk assets. The cryptocurrency rose 19% in just over a month and topped $80,000 on Monday for the first time since January. Oil traded above $100, while Bloomberg’s commodity futures index reached a decade high. U.S. consumer inflation expectations also rose, adding pressure to the inflation debate.
In the usual market playbook, higher inflation supports tighter Federal Reserve policy. Higher rates can lift Treasury yields and reduce interest in assets without yield, including Bitcoin.
That pattern shaped Bitcoin’s 2022 decline, when aggressive Fed rate hikes partly helped trigger a sharp crash. This time, though, Bitcoin has not followed the same script. Bitfinex analysts said macro signals remain divided, with commodities pricing supply stress while risk assets keep trading higher. They said this gap raises questions about the current risk-on setting.
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ETF flows have also strengthened the alternative view. Since March, 11 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $4.45 billion, nearly reversing the earlier autumn outflows.
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, said institutional flows point to a broader shift in hedging. He said digital assets now sit alongside gold in some hedging approaches.
Paul Howard, senior director at Wincent, also described Bitcoin as an inflation hedge and liquid store of value. He said those features could support a 3.5 times price increase over three years.
Bitcoin’s May rally has placed BTC near a rare three-month winning streak after gains in March and April. Seasonality data shows May has often favored Bitcoin, while ETF inflows and inflation concerns have strengthened the hedge debate. The key takeaway is whether BTC can sustain momentum through the month-end.