Bitcoin’s correction from its all-time highs has caused anxiety for many short-term traders, but institutional analysts still have strong long-term confidence. Research firm Bernstein has reaffirmed its bullish stance on Bitcoin by forecasting a target of $150,000 by 2026, even though BTC has corrected around 50% from its all-time high.
On Monday, analysts led by Gautam Chhugani in a note to investors described the current downtrend as the “weakest bear case” Bitcoin has seen.
Bernstein's analysts believe that the current sell-off is primarily due to a lack of investor confidence rather than any structural damage to the crypto ecosystem.
Bernstein highlighted that, unlike previous major drawdowns, the current correction has not been accompanied by systemic failures.
There have been no large-scale exchange collapses, custody issues, or hidden leverage events. Notably, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have seen net outflows of only about 7%, despite the asset’s steep decline from highs above $126,000.
This relatively muted ETF response suggests that institutional capital has remained largely stable, even as prices corrected.
Bernstein characterized the price action as sentiment-driven, arguing that Bitcoin is experiencing a temporary “crisis of confidence” rather than a breakdown in fundamentals.
The analysts attributed Bitcoin’s recent underperformance, particularly relative to gold to its continued treatment as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset.
In an environment of elevated interest rates and tight financial conditions, capital has gravitated toward traditional safe havens and high-growth sectors such as artificial intelligence-linked equities.
Bernstein dismissed popular bearish narratives, including claims that AI investment is permanently diverting capital away from crypto or that advances in quantum computing pose an imminent threat to Bitcoin’s security.
The firm argued that any realistic quantum risk would impact the entire digital economy, not Bitcoin alone, and would likely lead to a coordinated transition toward quantum-resistant systems.
Concerns around leveraged corporate Bitcoin holdings were also addressed. Bernstein noted that the major holders, including Strategy has formed their balance sheets through the use of long-term equity securities instead of short-term borrowing.
If production costs remain below market prices for an extended period, then miner economics will face significant pressure.
If the price decline extends for a long period, the miners will have limited impact as they developed multiple sources of income between their energy capacity and AI data center operations, according to Bernstein.
Also Read: Bitcoin Holds $70K After Wild Swings as Liquidity Fuels Recovery
Bitcoin price declined nearly 9% last week, reaching a low of $60,000 on Friday, and rebounded, retesting the daily resistance at $73,072 on Sunday.
At the time of writing on Tuesday, BTC is trading below $70,000 at $69,416 with 1.93% decline in the last 24 hours.
If BTC continues its recovery, it could extend the advance toward the daily resistance at $73,072.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is 32.67, pointing upward after rebounding from oversold territory last week.
However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has shown a bearish crossover, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend.