Barclays has warned that Brent crude could reach $100 a barrel after the US. and Israeli strikes on Iran, as energy traders prepare for a volatile market open and assess the risk of prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude oil closed near $72.48 per barrel on Friday, after gaining about 20% this year. By Sunday, over-the-counter trading pointed to a sharp jump toward $80 a barrel. The move reflected rising concern that military escalation could disrupt supply routes across the Gulf and tighten global oil availability in the short term.
The key concern for traders is not only the military action itself, but also the effect on physical oil flows. Market participants are watching whether tankers can move safely through the Strait of Hormuz when full trading resumes. Several shipping and energy firms reportedly paused movements through the route after security warnings increased over the weekend.
Barclays said oil markets may face a severe shock if supply disruption continues, and the bank raised the possibility of Brent moving toward $100 per barrel. Other energy analysts also outlined higher price scenarios, although estimates differ based on how long the disruption lasts and whether exports resume quickly.
Weekend price indications already showed the market reacting to this risk. A rise toward $80 a barrel before regular futures trading resumes suggests that traders now assign a much higher probability to supply interruptions in the Gulf. That shift in pricing has placed oil at the center of global market attention going into Monday.
The Strait of Hormuz handles more than one-fifth of global oil flows, which makes it the most important variable in the current crisis. The route carries exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran. Any sustained disruption could reduce available supply and push prices higher across crude, fuels, and related energy products.
Energy analysts estimate that even with some rerouting through alternative pipelines, a closure or major restriction in the strait could remove millions of barrels per day from the market. That scale of disruption explains why many forecasts now point to oil prices moving into the $90 to $100 range if the conflict expands or shipping delays continue.
The pressure extends beyond oil traders. A prolonged rise in crude prices would increase fuel costs, freight rates, and industrial input costs in many countries, especially major importers. As a result, investors are monitoring shipping updates and regional security developments as closely as they are tracking oil prices.
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OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day from April. The increase may help ease some pressure, but it remains small compared with the potential supply loss from a serious disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. For that reason, the decision may support sentiment without fully capping prices.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have spare capacity, but export logistics still depend on secure shipping routes in the Gulf. Even if producers pump more oil, markets may not see immediate relief if vessels cannot move freely or if insurers raise costs sharply for ships operating in the area.
Traders will likely focus on three signals when markets reopen: the status of shipping through Hormuz, the scale of any further military retaliation, and the ability of producers to move additional barrels into the market.
Those factors will shape whether Brent crude oil prices stabilize near current levels or move closer to the $100 mark that Barclays has flagged.