Wall Street employees could be in line for another record bonus year as strong trading, dealmaking, artificial intelligence investment and market volatility drive profits across New York’s financial industry.
The securities sector generated USD 45.9 billion in pretax profits during the first half of 2026, up 51.3% from the same period last year, according to New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli. If that pace continues, annual profits could exceed USD 90 billion.
The stronger-than-expected performance is changing the outlook for bonuses. DiNapoli expects the industry's 2026 bonus pool to increase, despite an earlier New York City forecast projecting a 20% decline. The final bonus figures will only be available next year, but current results point to another strong payout season.
Several major business lines have benefited from the stronger market environment. Increased merger and acquisition activity, higher trading volumes and enthusiasm around AI have helped lift Wall Street earnings.
The first-half profit figure has already exceeded New York City's earlier USD 45.3 billion forecast for the entire year. For comparison, Wall Street recorded USD 65.1 billion in full-year profits in 2025, a record at the time.
Wall Street's bonus pool reached USD 49.2 billion in 2025, while the average bonus rose 6% to USD 246,900. Average total compensation, including bonuses, reached USD 561,770 for New York City's securities industry employees.
The latest figures suggest 2026 could surpass those levels. NYSE member firms spent 18.8% more on employee compensation during the first half of this year than in the same period of 2025, another indication that firms are sharing some of their stronger earnings with employees.
The strength is not evenly distributed across financial services. Earlier industry projections from compensation consultancy Johnson Associates pointed to particularly strong bonus growth for equity sales and trading professionals, with increases of 20% to 30% or more, while M&A advisers were projected to see gains of 15% to 20%.
New York's financial industry is also expanding its workforce. Securities employment in the city reached 207,400 jobs in 2025, and preliminary data suggest another 5,300 positions could be added in 2026.
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The bonus boom is not guaranteed. Geopolitical tensions, inflation, higher interest rates, and bond-market volatility could affect trading and deal activity in the months ahead. Major US banks are also set to report third-quarter results soon, offering another indication of whether Wall Street's strong first-half performance is continuing. For New York, the stakes extend beyond employee paychecks: the financial industry is a major source of tax revenue for both the city and state.