Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest projects the crypto market could reach $28 trillion by 2030, rising from about $3.13 trillion today, according to its Big Ideas 2026 report. The firm said the market could grow at an annual rate of about 61 percent, driven by Bitcoin and expanding smart contract networks across public blockchains.
Ark divided its forecast into smart contract platforms and pure-play digital currencies, which it defines as stores of value, mediums of exchange, and units of account. Could Bitcoin’s growing role as a safe-haven asset reshape how global investors view digital markets?
Ark expects Bitcoin to account for about 70 percent of the total crypto market value by 2030, with the rest led by major smart contract platforms. Based on the forecast, Bitcoin’s market capitalization could rise from nearly $2 trillion to $16 trillion by 2030, implying a compound annual growth rate of about 63 percent.
The report said Bitcoin volatility and drawdowns in 2025 appeared lower compared with its historical patterns across five-year, three-year, one-year, and three-month periods. Institutional ownership plays a growing role in that shift. Ark said US spot Bitcoin ETFs and public companies held about 12 percent of total supply, up from 8.7 percent.
Bitcoin ETF balances rose 19.7 percent in 2025, climbing from about 1.12 million to 1.29 million coins, while public company holdings jumped 73 percent to about 1.09 million. Ark reiterated earlier long-term Bitcoin price scenarios for 2030, ranging from about $300,000 in a bear case to $1.5 million in a bull case.
The firm noted its outlook has remained stable despite raising its digital gold market estimate and cutting expectations for Bitcoin’s emerging-market role due to rapid stablecoin adoption.
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Ark expects smart contract networks to generate much of the remaining crypto market value, supported by on-chain finance, tokenized securities, and decentralized applications. The firm forecast that smart contract market capitalization could grow at a 54 percent annual rate to about $6 trillion by 2030.
Ark estimated these networks could generate about $192 billion in annualized revenue, assuming an average take rate of 0.75 percent across activity. It said two to three Layer 1 platforms should capture most of that value, benefiting more from monetary premium traits than discounted cash flows.
Major platforms such as Ethereum and Solana feature prominently in that outlook. Ark noted meme coins remain a small share of most blockchains, accounting for about 3 percent or less of capital outside Solana.
Solana stands out, where meme coins represent about 21 percent of assets, according to the report. Finally, Ark identified tokenization of real-world assets as a potential growth engine, citing off-chain assets as the largest opportunity for on-chain expansion.
Ark Invest forecasts the crypto market could reach $28 trillion by 2030, driven mainly by Bitcoin dominance and rapid growth in smart contract networks. Institutional adoption, ETFs, and tokenization trends shape this outlook. The projection frames how digital assets may evolve within global financial markets.