Derivatives trading volume is down 90% from its November 2024 peak, now at $6 billion.
Volume surges have historically preceded major DOGE rallies currently, they’re missing.
To reach $0.7 again, derivatives volume likely needs to exceed $50 billion/day.
Dogecoin (DOGE), the original meme cryptocurrency, has exhibited considerable price volatility since its creation. After reaching an all-time high of $0.74 in May 2021, DOGE has struggled to regain those levels. As of May 21, 2025, DOGE is trading around $0.231, with a trading volume of roughly $1.93 billion and a market cap of $34.54 billion.
Dogecoin's price has been relatively stable in recent months, hovering around the $0.20 to $0.25 range. Despite the price occasionally spiking up, DOGE's total trading volume remains less than in previous bull runs. For instance, in November 2024, DOGE's derivatives trading volume reached a high of $60.11 billion. However, by May 19, 2025, DOGE's trading volume had decreased to about $6 billion, over a 90% reduction.
Such low trading volume suggests that there is not much interest in buying DOGE, which typically has to occur before prices move significantly. Whether DOGE is going up or down, its price is more often influenced by trading volume. Based on historical data, price movements tend to correlate with upswings in trading volume. Nonetheless, trading volume is an important variable in the price movement of DOGE data.
Derivatives trading volume refers to the total volume of contracts based on DOGE that are bought and sold, often with leverage. This volume typically spikes when traders anticipate either bullish or bearish major price moves.
A reduction in speculative trading
A drop in market participation from large players and institutions
Low confidence in immediate price movement potential
The trend is visualized in historical volume charts, where recent candles show weakened buying and selling pressure.
Also Read: Dogecoin Faces Resistance: Can It Break Past the $0.25 Mark?
Historically, Dogecoin's most notable rallies have either been preceded by or coincided with significant trading volume increases, particularly among the derivatives. The chart below illustrates three notable bull cycles, each beginning after a prolonged period of volume contraction, followed by a "price breakout" as volume returned.
In 2021, it proved to be the pattern that helped push DOGE to its all-time high. While similar patterns tried to form in late 2023 and early 2024, volume had not followed suit to propel DOGE into a breakout.
The current volume environment looks like a "calm before the storm". But, unless we see a substantial increase in derivatives activity, another rally to $0.50 or perhaps even a run to the sought-after $0.70 mark seems unlikely in the short term.
While overall volume is down, whale activity is increasing, with recent activity showing that they accumulated over 1 billion DOGE recently, bringing total holdings to 25.97 billion DOGE, according to Coindesk.
Typically, whale accumulation signals a long-term bullish view, but unless retail/institutional volume increases along with it, it may be enough to move the needle in the near term.
Dogecoin Price is largely reliant on speculative interest at a very high volume. For DOGE to be reasonably retesting $0.5, analysts estimate that derivatives volume must be back to $30 billion a day in volume.
To surpass $0.7, historical trends suggest it would require:
Derivatives volume sustained over $50 billion
Bullish sentiment (possibly tied to a macroeconomic news item or endorsement, like Elon Musk before)
Increase in spot volume and inflow to exchanges
Whereas at certain times, derivatives volume exceeded 2021 levels, Dogecoin still couldn't break $0.5 in late 2024, meaning if it were to break out, more buying pressure is needed, and market participants must ramp up.
The current sentiment, reflected in a Fear & Greed Index reading of 70, shows moderate greed in the market. While the RSI and MACD indicators also highlight neutral momentum, this is similar to the flat volume profile for DOGE.
On-chain metrics confirm that transaction velocity has slowed considerably, and the exchange inflows are also low. Traders are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the catalyst.
Dogecoin has certainly proven that it can thrive off community hype, speculative energy, and market momentum. But right now, all signs point to volume being the missing ingredient.
Unless derivatives volume can recover convincingly, the price will likely remain bound between $0.20 and $0.25. Whale accumulation and sentiment suggest a good chance at long-term success. However, DOGE will need an influx of speculative volume, as opposed to just belief, to challenge its previous all-time high of $0.74.