A token generation event (TGE) is one of the most defining milestones for any Web3 project. Teams may pursue it for different strategic reasons, including decentralizing governance, bootstrapping liquidity, or expanding community ownership, but the mechanics behind launching a token follow a surprisingly consistent pattern.
This consistency allowed the research team at Formula by Cointelegraph to go deeper than surface-level narratives. Their analysis focused on token launches with verified on-chain liquidity above $1 million and daily trading volume exceeding $5 million. This ensured that only substantial and market-relevant events were included in the dataset.
Once published, the research quickly caught the attention of industry voices who applauded the structured and data-driven approach and the clarity it brought to a topic often clouded by assumptions rather than evidence.
One of the most persistent myths in crypto is that TGE success is predetermined by the size of a project’s brand or the influence it has accumulated before launch. Bigger communities, louder hype cycles, and stronger social presence are often believed to translate into guaranteed ROI.
Formula’s research rejects this assumption entirely.
The findings show that several other factors, often overlooked, have a far greater impact on post-launch performance. Brand size, while helpful, is far from decisive.
As @CryptoBusy noted on X, even small-audience projects can outperform giants when their narrative is strong:
The data supports this point. Money can buy reach, but not loyalty and especially not conviction.
To test this idea, Formula collected descriptive and numerical data from projects such as WalletConnect, GIZA, Cookie DAO, and StakeStone. The goal was to evaluate whether fundraising totals or community size predicted stronger TGE performance.
The conclusion was clear. The correlation coefficient between community size or fundraising and TGE success was close to zero.
@Z_Humphries reinforced this idea on X:
Projects with the biggest crowds were not necessarily the ones with the best outcomes. What mattered more were the fundamentals shaping the token’s story and purpose.
Another popular belief is that raising more money automatically sets a project up for a stronger debut. According to CryptoRank, which examined and amplified the research, capital alone does not dictate performance.
CryptoRank highlighted several insights from the report that showed timing, product market fit, and narrative power had far more influence on ROI than initial raise size.
These findings surprised many readers, especially those accustomed to evaluating TGEs through the lens of total capital raised or investor prestige. Instead, the data showed that a refined narrative aligned with the market environment often outperformed raw capital strength.
Media appearances can trigger short-term price spikes. However, they do not need to come from Tier 1 publications to be effective. One of the more unexpected takeaways from Formula’s analysis was how mid-tier and niche media coverage could produce equal or even stronger impact, depending on timing and message clarity.
This point challenged long-standing assumptions and suggested that relevance often matters more than prestige when it comes to influencing TGE outcomes.
A Tier 1 listing is often viewed as a seal of legitimacy and, therefore, a prerequisite for strong early performance. The research suggests otherwise.
Projects that launched on alternative exchanges still achieved strong results when their tokenomics, market preparation, and activation strategies were well executed.
As @CryptosBatman emphasized on X, accurate and thoughtful processes are far more influential than the name of the exchange hosting the listing:
Execution proves to be more important than optics.
The publication of the study was hardly limited to just getting readers. It caused a heated debate through the whole ecosystem. Different groups like industry people, experts, and crypto KOLs have become very active with the findings, and their discussions have been spreading on X and at the same time, confirming the researchers' views through their own observations.
The most significant impact the report had was to give teams that are ready for their TPAs new ways of thinking about the market. They are no longer the victims of old and sometimes unreliable opinions but can now rely on a good understanding of the market's demand to know what features will assure success in the fast-changing market.
If the TGE market is going to be more competitive and difficult to judge, then backed insights like these will be a source of support to the builders by providing them with a practical framework through which they can make good decisions.
Besides, the community’s great interest indicated that it was really ready for a more realistic view of success.