ETH slips below the $2,800 support, triggering concerns of a deeper correction toward $2,500 after heavy liquidations wiped out nearly $1 billion in leveraged positions.
Technical models indicate a Wave 2 pullback, with ETH sitting near the 0.618 Fibonacci zone, while long-term projections still extend toward $7,000-$9,000 if momentum returns.
Despite the whale slowdown, institutional flows stay strong, with ETF inflows, L2 expansion, and staking growth maintaining a positive structural outlook for Ethereum.
Ethereum is again facing heightened volatility as it fails to reclaim key support levels and continues to face selling pressure. Although the short-term trajectory seems bearish with a possible move toward $2,500, multiple long-term indicators still suggest that Ethereum’s broader upward trend remains intact as institutional demand, ETF interest, and structural growth on the network continue to strengthen.
Ethereum is trading near $2,700, marking over 10% decline in the past 24 hours. Earlier this week, ETH briefly touched $2,845 before sliding back to $2,650.
The breakdown below the critical $2,800 support has shifted sentiment toward caution, with traders now focusing on whether the asset can avoid a deeper retest of the $2,500 demand zone.
According to Coinglass liquidation data, over $950 million in leveraged positions were wiped out this week, accelerating the decline across major altcoins.
Analysts note that ETH must regain $2,800 to prevent extended downward pressure, as previous cycles show price often drifts toward lower Fibonacci zones when major support levels are broken.
Unless ETH closes decisively above $2,830-$2,900, momentum may remain weak in the near term.
According to Stocktrader_Max, Ethereum’s recent breakdown aligns with a Wave 2 corrective phase in Elliott Wave structure, a pullback often seen before a major continuation rally.
The current correction places ETH near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level around $2,748, which historically acts as a turning point for trend reversals.
While Wave 2 declines can be sharp, they often precede Wave 3 expansions, which are the strongest in a multi-wave cycle.
Some long-term projections place an extended Wave 3 target in the $7,000-$9,000 range, though such outcomes depend heavily on liquidity conditions, ETF flows, and macroeconomic stability.
The $2,830-$2,900 zone acts as immediate resistance and must be reclaimed for any sustained recovery.
The $2,681 liquidity band tested in previous retracements continues to function as a key reaction level.
A deeper support zone near $2,606 aligns with current downward momentum and may serve as a stabilization point.
The RSI has now neared oversold territory. Historically, this triggered interest from long-term holders seeking favorable accumulation points.
Candlesticks on the daily chart also hint at weakening selling pressure, though confirmation requires higher trading volume.
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According to IntoTheBlock, the whale accumulation slowed notably after ETH lost the $3,000 level.
Large addresses holding between 1 million to 10 million ETH have reduced activity, suggesting weak sentiment in the short term.
At the same time, long-term profitability metrics such as the MVRV ratio have dipped to four-month lows, often signaling that holders are approaching capitulation zones.
Despite reduced whale activity, institutional flows remain robust. CoinShares data shows continued rotation into ETH-linked ETF products, even during the downtrend.
With multiple regions evaluating ETH ETF approvals for 2026, regulatory progress continues to support the long-term narrative.
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Analysts tracking historical fractals warn that Ethereum is now replicating price patterns seen before the major 2022 breakdown.
Back then, ETH failed several key resistance attempts before sliding from $4,750 to $800, an 81% down move.
ETH’s current 28% monthly decline resembles the early stages of that fractal. Increasing rejection around $2,900-$3,000 strengthens comparisons, with analysts warning that ETH may retest $2,450-$2,500 if spot flows and derivative participation continue to fade.
Outflows totaling $415 million in 24 hours reflect weakening conviction. Meanwhile, derivatives open interest has dropped from $45 billion to $35.5 billion, a sign that speculative appetite is fading.
Despite immediate risks, analysts maintain that Ethereum’s long-term outlook remains favorable. Historical accumulation patterns, ETF adoption, L2 expansion, and staking growth all provide structural support.
Medium-term projections place potential recovery targets at $3,800, $4,400, and eventually $5,100, provided ETH reclaims strength above $3,170 and avoids sustained closes below $2,470.