Ethereum is showing signs of a potential rally, flashing price action last observed during Q2 2025. A growing set of on-chain, derivatives, and positioning indicators suggests that ETH may be entering an early-stage structural shift.
According to Swissblock, Ethereum’s market cycle indicator has flipped back to a predominance phase, historically associated with ETH leadership and sustained outperformance.
Similar signals appeared during Q2 2025, preceding a multi-week rally as Ethereum absorbed supply faster than it was distributed.
This shift suggests ETH is transitioning away from passive participation toward a phase where it can once again dictate broader market direction, provided other conditions align.
The key structural driver is supply compression; roughly 47% of Ethereum’s circulating supply, about 77.85 million ETH, is now staked, the highest on record, according to Santiment.
Importantly, staking entry queues have outpaced the exit queue, signaling sustained demand for ETH’s 3% native yield.
Also, Bitmine has staked 1.47 million ETH, worth around $5.56 billion, in the last week, a third of its Ethereum holdings. This is removing the liquid supply from the market.
Meanwhile, US spot ETH ETFs holding nearly 10% of the total ETH supply have filed to enable staking, which could further restrict sell-side liquidity.
According to CryptoQuant, since Jan. 6, ETH net taker volume has reached approximately $390 million, signaling renewed interest from leveraged traders after nearly three years of persistent sell-side dominance.
This measures aggressive futures buying versus selling and has historically turned positive near market bottoms or early trend transitions, not at tops.
CryptoQuant data shows that the cumulative volume delta remains negative, while price stability persists, indicating that larger traders are absorbing supply rather than distributing it.
Structurally, ETH is consolidating at its five-month point of control between $3,050 and $3,140.
Liquidity mapping shows that there are nearly $540 million in long positions around $3,100, in addition to another $500 million in liquidity below $3,000. Such a setup favors range-bound consolidation as leverage resets.
A sustained decline below $3,000 would weaken the structure, while a rebound to the $3,300-$3,400 zone would signal bullish continuation.
Also Read: How Ethereum Finally Slashed $50 Gas Fees in 2026
While Ethereum's internal factors are improving, the macro factors remain a major risk. The uncertainty over tariffs between the US and Europe has affected risk assets, and indicators reflecting ETH sentiment, such as the Coinbase Premium, have not convincingly turned positive.
CoinShares' inflow data highlights significant institutional demand; however, sustained momentum may depend on broader risk-on conditions.
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