Dogecoin on the Edge: Crucial Chart Pattern Hints What’s Next
DOGE Price at a Crossroads: Key Pattern Could Define the Next Move
Key Takeaways:
DOGE is holding its historical 20-month SMA support at $0.1751, a level that previously triggered massive rallies.
A breakout in TOTAL2 could ignite another altcoin season, with DOGE primed to benefit.
A close below $0.175 could flip the structure bearish, risking a drop toward the $0.13 support zone.
As of mid-June 2025, Dogecoin (DOGE) stands at a pivotal technical juncture, with multiple charts and long-term patterns pointing toward a potentially explosive move up or down. The meme-inspired cryptocurrency, long known for its volatility and cult following, is showing signs of renewed strength while also testing critical support zones.
The meme coin is priced at $0.1776 at the time of writing. Analysts are divided but agree on one thing: the next few monthly closes could determine DOGE’s trajectory for the remainder of the year.
Daily Chart Analysis: Signs of Reversal Building
After months of being locked in a descending channel pattern, DOGE recently found support near $0.17, bouncing off the lower trendline. Current price action, around $0.1769, is attempting to reclaim the 50-day EMA, suggesting a potential local reversal.
Key Fibonacci retracement levels from the November high remain in play:
0.236 at ~$0.2129
0.382 at ~$0.2647
0.5 at ~$0.3064
A daily close above $0.21 could open the door for a rally toward the $0.30 psychological zone, with the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement levels acting as major resistance areas.
However, failure to break above this descending channel could send DOGE back toward the $0.145 - $0.13 demand zone marked in red, which acted as major accumulation during earlier sell-offs.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering just above 40, indicating DOGE is neither overbought nor oversold. A bullish divergence or an RSI break above 50 would further support the bullish case.
20-Month SMA: The Historical Lifeline
One of the most pivotal indicators in Dogecoin’s long-term chart history is the 20-month Simple Moving Average (SMA), positioned at $0.1751. This moving average has historically marked the launch point of Dogecoin’s two biggest bull runs:
In March 2017, DOGE bounced off the 20-month SMA near $0.0002 and skyrocketed by over 9,000% into early 2018.
In late 2020, DOGE touched the SMA again and proceeded to rally by a staggering 34,500%, peaking at $0.73 in May 2021.
Now, Dogecoin has returned to this same key level. Over the last two months, price action has seen candles dipping below $0.20, only to be strongly bought back up, leaving long lower wicks and preserving the SMA’s upward slope.
According to chart analyst Cantonese Cat, as long as DOGE holds this trendline, the bullish structure remains intact.
But the warning is clear: a monthly close below $0.175 could trigger a breakdown, risking a long-term trend reversal similar to those seen after previous cycle peaks.
TOTAL2 Chart: The Altcoin Market’s Blueprint
Zooming out, macro analyst Kevin (Kev_Capital_TA) has drawn attention to a broader structural setup using the TOTAL2 chart, representing the market cap of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin. This chart is currently forming an ascending triangle, pressing against resistance between $1.43 trillion and $1.7 trillion, with steadily higher lows supported from below.
The pattern projects a potential breakout toward the $5.9 trillion level, with intermediate Fibonacci extension targets at:
1.618 extension – $4.06 trillion
1.886 extension – $4.57 trillion
2.0 extension – $5.89 trillion
Historically, Dogecoin's massive rallies have occurred only after altcoin market caps (TOTAL2) have broken out of prior-cycle highs, indicating that broader capital rotation into altcoins is a crucial prerequisite for DOGE to take off. Kevin notes that if TOTAL2 breaks out, “altcoins are just scratching the surface of what’s possible.”
Also Read: Dogecoin Makes a Big Move: Will the Next Impulse Push It Past $1?
Momentum & Market Context
DOGE’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe remains neutral around 40, leaving room for both upward and downward momentum.
Whale accumulation has increased over the past few weeks, indicating possible preparation for a bigger move, but volume has remained light compared to the peaks seen during previous rallies.
Market participants should also monitor:
Key Scenarios to Watch
Bullish Setup
Monthly close above $0.18 - $0.20
TOTAL2 breaks above $1.7 trillion
DOGE clears $0.21 on the daily chart
Target: $0.30 - $0.40 (next resistance), with $0.48 - $0.58 as extended targets.
Neutral Scenario
Price consolidates between $0.17 - $0.20
TOTAL2 remains range-bound
Outcome: Sideways price action, potential accumulation phase.
Bearish Breakdown
Monthly close below $0.175
TOTAL2 fails to break out
Target: Retest of $0.145 - $0.13 demand zone, extended correction possible.
Conclusion
Dogecoin is once again approaching a critical technical decision point. The combination of macro market setup, the 20-month SMA, and descending channel resistance could culminate in one of the most important monthly closes since early 2021. If history is any guide, holding above the 20-month SMA has proven to be the launchpad for monumental price movements in DOGE.
For now, the meme-coin holds its ground above $0.175. Whether this becomes the foundation for the next leg higher or a false floor before breakdown depends on how the price responds to the pressure ahead.
Also Read: How Dogecoin Evolved from Meme to a Global Crypto Ecosystem?