Overview:

• XRP price approaches the potential death cross with very strong derivatives activity and exchange outflows, signaling that bulls are still active.

• Key resistance lies at $2.65, and clearing this could spark a rally toward $3.10, while losing $2.20 risks deeper correction.

• Long-term fundamentals, including institutional adoption and ODL expansion, are intact regardless of temporary chart patterns.

XRP is again in the spotlight among traders who are keeping tabs on the token's tightening technical setup and its approach toward what could be a bearish chart signal: a death cross. Having traded in proximity to $2.50 after a recent rally of 5.6%, XRP price has entered one of the narrowest symmetrical triangle setups seen all year in 2025. As pressure builds, the question is being asked with increasing urgency: Could XRP be nearing a death cross-and what could that suggest for the short-term trend?

Current XRP Price Structure: Tension at Key Levels Building

In the last week, XRP price is up 13.3%, regaining the 20-day EMA at $2.42, with price action continuing to range between major resistance at $2.65 and support at $2.20. Buyers have defended last week’s lows, supporting a 4.3% climb to $2.49 at the time of writing.

Multiple indicators now point to the easing of selling pressure. On-chain data reveals $2.37 million in exchange outflows, signaling accumulation. Meanwhile, the derivatives market shows rising interest:

Futures open interest: Up 0.9% to $3.91 billion

Derivatives volume: Up 68% to $9.62 billion

Options volume: Up 63%

Options open interest: Up 156%

This rise in derivatives trading implies that traders are gearing up for volatility as XRP approaches the top of its year-long consolidation zone.

Long-to-short ratios reinforce the bullish tilt:

Binance: 2.58

Top traders: 2.82

OKX: 1.39

These figures show that, while optimism is building, leverage is still under control-a signal that is often healthier for sustainability.

Also Read: XRP Price Outlook: What to Expect in the Next 5 Years?

The Death Cross: Should Traders Be Worried?

A death cross takes place when the shorter-term moving average, normally the 50-day, slips beneath the longer-term 200-day moving average. This pattern is considered by many traders as a warning of weakening momentum.

But it's important to understand what a death cross actually represents: it does not predict future momentum; it reflects that the short-term trend has cooled compared to the long-term trend; and the 200-day moving average can still rise, even during a death cross. In short, a death cross is more of a report card for past price action, not a prophecy. XRP nearing this setup does not automatically imply disaster. Instead, it highlights that the recent rally has not yet shifted the long-term averages enough to prevent the crossover.

XRP's Moving Averages Signal Trouble

XRP managed to reclaim its 20-day EMA, but the true point of decision comes between the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, now compressing down to $2.55–$2.58. This usually precedes a big move. If XRP cannot break above this cluster, then momentum may soften and push the short-term average lower, raising the risk of a death cross. A breakdown below $2.30, or worse, $2.20, would raise that risk significantly. However, holding above $2.42 keeps the bullish structure intact.

Why Long-Term Investors Shouldn't Be Concerned About Chart Patterns

Chart signals such as a death cross matter most to short-term traders, while long-term investors should focus more on broader factors such as Ripple's ongoing regulatory progress, increased institutional adoption of the XRP Ledger, the expansion of ODL, and the increased role of tokenization and real-world asset integration. These ultimately dictate long-term value much more than fleeting technical signals. Were it to happen at all, there is nothing about the emergence of a death cross that might tarnish longer-term utility or wider adoption prospects for XRP.

What's Next for XRP?

In the short term, $2.65 is a price that has repeatedly rejected bulls, and if it can establish a daily close above the level, we could likely see a move toward $2.85 and $3.10 targets, which correspond with the 200-day EMA and previous swing highs. A rejection of $2.65, however, could see the price drift lower toward the $2.30–$2.20 area, and a break below $2.20 may expose the price for a deeper pullback toward $2.00. As for forecasts for 2025, they remain mixed, with the bullish case going as high as $15, while more conservative estimates put XRP in the $2.40–$3.00 area.

Also Read: Crypto Prices Today: Bitcoin Price Drops to $97,000; Dogecoin, ADA, and XRP See Bigger Losses

Verdict: Is XRP Really Heading Toward a Death Cross?

At any rate, the technical setup does suggest a death cross could occur, but it is nowhere near a foregone conclusion. Strong momentum, rising derivatives activity, and falling exchange reserves all add credence to the bullish case, in the short term at least. Ultimately, the next few sessions will determine whether XRP confirms a breakout from previous highs or drifts into a deeper correction. For now, the market is focused on $2.65 as a gateway to XRP's next major move.

You May Also Read

XRP Price Could Reach New Highs by 2029: Here’s the Prediction

Missed XRP? 5 Altcoins Under $5 Poised for 1000% Gains in 2025

What Happens If XRP Decouples from Bitcoin? Expert Explains

FAQs

1. What is a death cross in crypto?

A death cross occurs when a short-term moving average, usually the 50-day, crosses below a long-term moving average, such as the 200-day average. This is taken as a bearish sign by traders, but it is based on previous price weakness rather than any future momentum. In fact, the long-term trend could still be intact even when you see a death cross.

2. Does a Death Cross always mean XRP will drop?

No, a death cross does not mean XRP is definitely going down. This does show that momentum is cooling recently, but there are many assets that have had nice rallies shortly after forming a death cross. Sentiment in the market, demand and liquidity, and even general fundamentals can easily overpower a short-term signal.

3. What is the most important price level for XRP currently?

For XRP, the most important price level is $2.65, where it has seen repeated rejection. A breakout above that resistance level could lead to bullish continuation toward $2.85 and $3.10, respectively. On the downside, if it were to lose $2.20, that will likely confirm a deeper correction down toward the $2.00 area.

4. Should long-term XRP holders be worried about a death cross?

Long-term investors are largely at peace with a death cross for XRP in the short-term; it ultimately is driven by momentum in a shorter time-frame space. XRP's long-term valuation is based more on the adoption of the XRP Ledger, regulatory progress of Ripple, and expanding use cases through ODL and tokenizing (and all things that are beyond the structure of chart patterns) than it is on a chart structure.

5. Is XRP still considered bullish for 2025?

Yes, most analysts still have forecasts that show XRP is bullish for 2025 due to more institutional use cases, improved liquidity, and more developer activity. Price will continue to be volatile; however, if key resistance levels are broken, long-term projections remain optimistic, with some showing significant upside in price.