Bitcoin Price holds around $115K after retreating from a $125K all-time high.
Federal Reserve policy signals and inflation data drive short-term volatility.
Strong demand from Crypto ETFs and reduced supply support long-term Bitcoin and Crypto growth.
Bitcoin price is trading around $115,500 after falling from the recent record peak of $124,000–$125,000. Last week saw sharp swings as the market reacted to both profit-taking and fresh economic data from the United States. Bitcoin reached a new all-time high on August 14, 2025, but the momentum faded quickly as traders locked in gains and adjusted to changing macroeconomic signals.
Despite the pullback, Bitcoin is still up strongly in 2025, with the year-to-date gains hovering around one-third.
The decline began after the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the United States, which showed inflation rising by 0.9% month-on-month in July. This was much higher than expected and signaled that inflationary pressures remain strong. Higher inflation reduces the chances of fast interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
That news rattled investors across global markets and quickly spilled over into crypto. As a result, Bitcoin slipped back toward the high $110,000s, ending the surge that had lifted it into uncharted territory only a day earlier.
The next big event on the calendar is the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, scheduled for August 21–23. Markets are waiting to hear what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will say about the outlook for monetary policy. A softer tone could fuel a rally in risk assets, including Bitcoin, while a hawkish stance might drag prices lower. At the same time, recent data such as weekly jobless claims, which stood at 224,000, suggest the US labor market remains resilient.
This complicates the Federal Reserve’s decision-making, as strong employment alongside high inflation may reduce the urgency to cut interest rates.
A major factor supporting Bitcoin’s climb has been the steady demand through exchange-traded funds. In July 2025, US crypto ETFs recorded a massive $12.8 billion in net inflows, the largest monthly total ever. However, in early August, there were signs of outflows as some investors shifted money into newly launched ether ETFs or trimmed exposure due to macroeconomic uncertainty. Despite these short-term pauses, the scale of adoption is clear.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone reported $87.7 billion in assets under management as of August 15, 2025, showing how mainstream investment channels are playing a critical role in absorbing supply.
Also Read - What is Bitcoin Mining?
The Bitcoin halving on April 19, 2024, reduced block rewards to 3.125 BTC per block, cutting new issuance in half. With fewer coins entering circulation, the market has become more sensitive to changes in demand.
Even relatively modest inflows can push prices sharply higher in this environment. This structural tightening of supply continues to support the bullish case, even though price corrections still occur when investors take profits or when macro events shift sentiment.
Bitcoin’s network remains as strong as ever. The hash rate has been hovering near record levels in August, between 900 to 1,000 exahashes per second (EH/s). This means miners are continuing to invest in infrastructure, boosting the security of the network. Although the halving reduced miner revenue, the commitment to expanding operations shows confidence in the long-term value of Bitcoin. At the same time, tougher competition raises the difficulty of mining and can put financial strain on smaller or less efficient operators.
For much of 2024, the market was unsettled by concerns about forced sales from government-controlled wallets and the long-delayed Mt. Gox bankruptcy repayments. While these issues are not fully resolved, the pressure has eased for now.
The Mt. Gox trustee has set a repayment deadline of October 31, 2025, which gives the market breathing room in the short term. Still, any large movement of coins from these wallets often sparks nervous reactions, as traders try to gauge whether supply will hit exchanges.
On the charts, Bitcoin price today is moving in a consolidation zone between $115,000 and $125,000. The lower boundary of this range has held up several times, while the upper boundary represents the resistance area at the record high.
If Bitcoin price manages to break cleanly above $125,000, the path could open toward $150,000, which many analysts view as the next major psychological level. On the other hand, a close below $115,000 would raise the risk of a deeper correction, possibly toward older breakout levels.
Activity on the CME Bitcoin futures market remains deep and liquid. Institutional players continue to use these instruments to hedge and speculate, which improves price discovery. However, this also means that sudden macro shocks or positioning shifts can lead to rapid moves in both directions. With higher open interest than in previous cycles, Bitcoin has become more responsive to big-picture events like inflation reports and central bank meetings.
Several forces still favor the long-term bullish Bitcoin price prediction. The rise of regulated ETF products has created a direct channel for institutional money to flow into Bitcoin. The halving has tightened supply, meaning smaller inflows can still generate strong price rallies. Meanwhile, the resilience of the network, demonstrated by record hash rates and ongoing miner expansion, underscores confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
Despite these positives, Bitcoin price news states that risks remain. The biggest short-term driver is monetary policy. If the Federal Reserve takes a tougher line at Jackson Hole, tightening financial conditions could weigh on all risk assets. Another risk is the potential for outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, which can accelerate declines when market sentiment shifts.
Legacy issues such as Mt. Gox repayments and movements from large government wallets also have the power to unsettle markets. Finally, miner stress under tighter margins could increase selling pressure if prices drop sharply.
Also Read - Bitcoin & XRP Fall: How Inflation Data Could Stop Crypto Rally?
Bitcoin remains in an uptrend when viewed over several months, but the immediate picture shows a market caught between strong structural demand and short-term macro pressures. The range between $115,000 and $125,000 is the battleground zone. A breakout above this level could lead to a push toward $130,000–$150,000, while a breakdown risks testing lower supports.
With the Jackson Hole event and further US economic data on the horizon, Bitcoin’s next big move will likely be shaped by the interplay between institutional flows, macro policy signals, and network resilience.
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