Bitcoin entered Q2 of 2026 with pressure following a volatile Q1 performance. The asset reversed considerably since it was trading near $84,000 early in the year and has since traded within the $60,000-$73,000 range. This consolidation is driven by macroeconomic risks, geopolitical tensions, and institutional flows.
Historically, Bitcoin has been cyclical with 4 years of halvings. With the April 2024 halving, which slowed the increase in supply to less than 1% per year, markets began a standard post-peak correction.
According to cycle projections, the Bitcoin cycle might not establish a long-term bottom until the end of Q3 or the beginning of Q4 2026. If this trend is true, the current price action would reflect a mid-cycle consolidation and not a bottom.
The drawdowns have also been smaller in prior cycles, which is a sign of maturation of the market.
The inflation risks have also risen due to growing oil prices and geopolitical pressures in the Middle East, and the central banks now have to rethink the possibility of lowering the rate.
Meanwhile, the growth of the annual money supply (M2) is high (approximately 8% per year) globally. This helps to uphold the digital gold narrative.
A major force in Q2 will be the relationship between the tightening monetary policy and the expansion of liquidity.
According to SoSoValue, Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a net outflow of $173.73 million as of April 1. This comes after 2 sessions of positive inflows of $187.07 million together. Cumulative net inflows stand at $55.95 billion.
The net assets under management are $87.71 billion or 6.43% of the total BTC supply.
However, the BTC held over a year has dropped from above 70% to less than 60%, releasing more than 2 million BTC into circulation and increasing supply pressure.
Also Read: Bitcoin Price Stuck Between $65,000 and $73,000: What Comes Next?
Bitcoin is trading with a downward sloping tilt, currently at $66,600 below the sloping resistance line, which now caps the upside near $73,900.
The price also trades below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and far below the 100-day and 200-day EMAs.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows the asset trades below the signal line, and the histogram is modestly negative, indicating the decline in bullish momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 43 remains around the midline, which means that the sentiment is balanced following the recent pullback.
The initial resistance is near the 50-day EMA around $71,000, followed by the recent high of about $72,800.
On the negative side, the support is seen at $68,000, followed by $65,000. Any break below 65,000 would reveal further decline to $60,000.
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