Bitcoin entered October near USD 85,360 as weak U.S. employment data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could pause rate hikes later this month. BTC then climbed close to USD 87,000 before retreating below USD 86,000 during Monday's Asian trading hours. The pullback left Bitcoin about USD 500 below its eight-month high and kept the late-September resistance zone in focus.
The September jobs report showed only 29,000 new payrolls. That weaker reading reduced expectations for further rate hikes at the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting. At the same time, Treasury yields eased, while global equity markets extended gains.
Bitcoin remained 1.3% higher over 24 hours despite giving back about USD 1,000 from its Sunday peak. The latest move marked Bitcoin's second attempt within a week to break through resistance near USD 87,400.
Bitcoin's rally gathered pace on Sunday before BTC moved above USD 86,000 and reached nearly USD 86,950. Buyers could not maintain the move, and the cryptocurrency later slipped below USD 86,000.
A similar pattern appeared last Wednesday. Bitcoin climbed to about USD 85,500 after softer U.S. inflation data but surrendered those gains within hours. A daily close above USD 87,000 would provide the first sign that buyers can challenge the late-September high.
The October 14 CPI report now becomes an important macro event. The October 29 PCE inflation report will be released after the Fed’s scheduled October 27-28 policy meeting. Together, those releases will shape expectations for interest rates.
The central question is whether softer employment data and sustained investor demand can help Bitcoin clear USD 87,400 and reopen a path toward USD 90,000.
A stronger breakout could shift attention toward the USD 95,000 to USD 100,000 range described in the October outlook. In contrast, weaker demand or renewed macro pressure could expose the USD 76,000 to USD 80,000 area.
Bond markets reacted to Friday's employment data as the 10-year Treasury yield fell two basis points to 5.25%. Even after that decline, the yield remained close to its highest level since 2002.
Meanwhile, stocks continued rising. The Nasdaq 100 closed at a record on Friday, while the MSCI Asia Pacific equities index gained 1%. Japan's Nikkei 225 advanced 2.5%.
Oil moved lower as Brent crude dropped 0.7% to around USD 101.50 per barrel. Saudi Arabia had reduced prices for its benchmark crude grade sold to Asia.
The U.S. dollar moved in the opposite direction. A Bloomberg gauge of the currency rose 0.4% as the euro dropped to its weakest level since May 2025. Reports that Spain could prepare for an early election pressured the euro.
Bitcoin therefore faces mixed macro signals. Lower Treasury yields and expectations for a Fed pause support risk assets, while a stronger dollar creates another factor for traders to monitor.
Read More: Why Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Dogecoin Fell as Rate Hike Odds Increased
Technical signals also point to near-term caution. Analyst Ali Martinez said Bitcoin's Sunday moves repeatedly reversed direction on Mondays during five recent weekly periods. His data covered Sunday-Monday pairs between August 29 and September 28. Each pair changed direction. Sunday gains preceded Monday declines, while Sunday losses came before Monday rebounds.
For example, Bitcoin gained 0.50% on August 29 before losing 0.68% the next day. A 0.66% Sunday rise on September 6 preceded a 1.54% Monday decline.
Meanwhile, Sunday declines of 0.57% and 0.10% on September 13 and September 20 came before Monday gains of 1.75% and 6.71%. The sample covered only five weeks, while the September 27 Sunday gain measured just 0.01%.
Martinez also pointed to a TD Sequential sell signal on Bitcoin's four-hour chart. His previous four comparable signals preceded corrections of 1.74%, 4.37%, 3.11%, and 1.96%.
Ethereum and Solana showed similar signals. Ethereum's previous two comparable readings preceded declines of 5.40% and 3.31%. Solana's previous three signals came before corrections of 2.44%, 5.76%, and 5.30%.
Broader crypto trading remained positive. DOGE gained more than 3%, while XRP, BNB, and ZEC advanced between 1% and 2%. Ether and HYPE added less than 1%, while SOL and TRX traded nearly flat.
Pluang's October 5 market snapshot also showed 32 of 50 major cryptocurrencies rising and 17 falling. ATOM gained 3.31% to Rp31,540, while DOGE rose 3.07% to Rp1,711. ONE dropped 3.29% to Rp43.
ETF fund flows, inflation data, Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve policy now remain central to Bitcoin's October path.
Bitcoin entered October with support from weaker jobs data and expectations for a Fed pause, but resistance near USD 87,400 remains intact. CPI, PCE, ETF flows, Treasury yields, and the Fed's October decision will determine whether BTC approaches USD 90,000 or retreats toward lower support.