Bitcoin’s new whales are overtaking early adopters in terms of controlling the capital. This shift is reshaping market behavior and helping explain why Bitcoin has struggled to establish a clear trend despite improving macro conditions.

Data indicates that new Bitcoin whales as holders possessing over 1,000 BTC purchased in the last 155 days now control approximately $130 billion worth of Bitcoin, more than the $126 billion owned by the long-term "OG" whales.

This transformation has a significant impact on the supply dynamics since it now becomes possible to consider institutional-scale buyers to rival and exceed early Bitcoin whales.

Who Are the New Whales?

Unlike the original Bitcoin whales, who accumulated coins at very low prices, the new whales consist largely of institutional players and corporate treasuries. 

Firms such as Strategy and Twenty One Capital represent a new set of buyers who view Bitcoin as a strategic, long-term asset rather than a speculative trade.

Speaking to CNBC in December, Jack Mallers emphasized that Twenty One Capital does not see Bitcoin merely as a treasury hedge but as a core acquisition target. 

According to Bitcoin Treasuries data, the firm holds 43,514 BTC, worth approximately $3.9 billion, ranking it among the largest corporate Bitcoin holders.

At the same time, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated $116.6 billion worth of BTC, equivalent to about 6.5% of Bitcoin’s $1.8 trillion market capitalization, underscoring the large scale of institutional capital in the market.

The $6 Billion Pressure Point

The average cost basis of new whales sits near $98,000, while Bitcoin is currently trading around $90,000. 

This gap leaves roughly $6 billion in unrealized losses concentrated among large, newly formed positions.

According to CryptoQuant, this imbalance is creating a supply overhang. Some new whales treat pullbacks as buying opportunities, but others may be forced to sell, generating choppy price action as buying and selling pressures collide within the same band.

Market Structure in Transition

Analysts characterized the current period as a redistribution cycle instead of a typical bull or bear market. The supply is being absorbed by long-term institutions while they continue to take profits on their earlier positions. 

The internal rebalancing has created new liquidity anchors, helping Bitcoin not to face sharp crashes but also slow to trend higher.

Also Read: Bitcoin Whales Buy the Dip as Retail Sells During $89K Pullback: Is the Market Rebounding Soon?

Macro Relief, Internal Conflict Remains

Bitcoin recently jumped nearly 3% from $87,653 to $90,240 amid comments by Donald Trump, who signalled reduced tariff pressure after discussions with Mark Rutte, according to data from CoinGecko.

However, the Bitcoin price remains mainly affected by the struggle between the new whale band despite positive geopolitical signals.

During this period of excess supply, Bitcoin's price is expected to be volatile and range-bound.