On Thursday, the Indian stock market is expected to open cautiously. Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 are anticipated to start lower for a fifth consecutive session, as weak global signals and derivatives data continue to weigh on the markets, while investors look for signs of support at key technical levels.
The Gift Nifty was trading near 25,070 in early moves, 29 points below the Nifty futures’ previous close. This indicates a weak opening for domestic markets, extending Wednesday’s losses when the Nifty slipped below the 25,100 mark. The Sensex had ended 386 points lower at 81,715.63, while the Nifty 50 settled 112 points down at 25,056.90.
Sensex created a lower-top pattern on intraday charts and formed a bearish candle on the daily chart, showing weakness in momentum. Analysts believe that a new wave of selling could start if the index drops below 81,500, with downside targets at 81,200-81,000.
Nevertheless, having any bounce above 82,000 may trigger a pullback rally toward 82,300-82,500. Short-term volatility will remain, and traders should take a level-based stance relative to the swings.
Nifty 50 also continued its decline, creating a bearish candle with a lower high and lower low pattern. Support is visible at 25,000-24,950, with the next important support near 24,900, which coincides with important moving averages and Fibonacci levels.
A breakdown below 24,900 could accelerate declines toward 24,800. On the upside, resistance is pegged at 25,150-25,200, and only a sustained move above this level could pave the way for a rally to 25,350-25,300. Analysts caution that despite the weakness, the broader structure remains intact as long as Nifty holds above 24,900.
Options data shows some caution. Heavy call open interest at the 25,500 strike level now creates a strong ceiling of resistance, while significant put writing at the 25,000 strike level indicates immediate support. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) eased to 0.78 from 0.86, reflecting a bearish bias while also reflecting the indecision among traders.
Bank Nifty decreased by 388 points and finished at 55,121.50, forming a bearish candle pattern and settling below the 23.6% retracement level. Experts say the index may drift lower toward 54,800-54,600 if it remains below the 55,000 level. On the upper side, it may find resistance levels between 55,500 and 55,600 with a breakout to rally again.
Indicators like RSI and MACD suggest weakening strength, reinforcing the view of a short-term downtrend with consolidation.
With global sentiment weak and domestic indices under pressure, traders should be prepared for yet another volatile session. Key supports for the Sensex at 81,500 and Nifty at 25,000 will be crucial in determining the market’s short-term direction, and Bank Nifty’s movement around 55,000 may set the tone for financial stocks.
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