Indian stock markets are likely to start on a positive note on January 13, mainly due to selective buying at lower levels but limited by uncertainty in global cues. GIFT Nifty's early indications show a flat to positive opening, with the index at 25,910, around 35 points above the last Nifty futures closing.

Yesterday, the domestic indices put an end to a five-day losing streak. The Sensex increased by 301.93 points (0.36%) to 83,878.17, whereas the Nifty 50 rose by 106.95 points (0.42%) to 25,790.25 at the close.

Global backdrop remains fragile

The cautious sentiment still prevails despite the recovery because of geopolitical and policy risks. An extra layer of uncertainty is created by new tariffs that impose a 25% tax on countries trading with Iran.

These actions have also raised concerns regarding the possibility of supply-chain disruptions, rising energy costs, and inflation, all of which can directly affect India, an emerging market.

On the monetary front, comments from John Williams offered some reassurance. By stating that US monetary policy is currently “in a good place,” the Federal Reserve signaled a pause in rate-related surprises, which has helped stabilize global risk sentiment amid geopolitical noise.

Sensex Outlook

Options data suggest a gradual improvement in sentiment. Put open interest has built up around 83,500 and 83,000, indicating that traders are defending higher support levels. 

Should the Sensex stay above the 83,300-83,500 level, the short-term trend will remain cautiously bullish. 

Furthermore, the index is under heavy pressure at 84,000, where a stronger resistance at 84,400-84,500 could cause a selling wave.

Nifty 50 Outlook

On the daily chart, the Nifty 50 has formed a bullish reversal candle, a strong indicator of a buying intention following the price drop last week.

The derivatives data indicate active Put writing at 25,500 and 25,600, which means that there is strong support in the short term. On the other side, heavy Call open interest at 25,900 and 26,000 is preventing the upside movement.

A sustained movement beyond 25,920, which is a significant moving-average area, might lead to a rise toward 26,000-26,100 in the following days.

Also Read: US Stock Market Today: Wall Street Wobbles as Probe Into Fed Chair Powell Raises Policy Concerns

Bank Nifty Outlook

The Bank Nifty yesterday settled at 59,450.50 with an increase of 0.34%. This move has been backed by an upward momentum from the lower levels. The index clearly has a short-term technical momentum swing, but overall, its position is still mixed.

The support is at 58,900-59,000, and the resistance is at 59,700-59,800. There is a need for a sustained breakout to confirm the strong uptrend.