Historical patterns show Bitcoin gains 30% post-crisis; current recovery could mirror past surges.
Institutions are buying more BTC than miners can supply, tightening the float and boosting price.
Liquidity from 50+ global rate cuts creates a risk-on environment perfect for Bitcoin’s rally.
Bitcoin may leap toward $136,000 in July, according to a forecast by Bitwise Asset Management, representing a roughly 30% rally from current levels. Analysts André Dragosch and Ayush Tripathi identify three major catalysts that could spark such a move.
A breakout looks increasingly likely with good technical setups, a benign supply dynamic, and institutional demand looming large.
Historically, Bitcoin has a good track record of rebounding massively after major geopolitical shocks. Bitwise shares data showing that Bitcoin has returned an average of 31% over the 50 days following 20 global events and incidents, including wars and macro panics.
The recent Israel-Iran conflict prompted short-term declines in prices in mid-June and tested sub-$99,000 levels. However, Bitcoin has quickly rebounded above $107,000, and it will be interesting to observe whether Bitcoin develops into a post-crisis rally.
If history is any guide, Bitcoin could move ahead of the $136,000 level by the end of July.
On-chain metrics show that the liquid BTC supply has shown a sharp decline, including the following:
Exchange holdings are currently under 15% of the total supply, the lowest seen in 7 years, and a potential incoming supply shock.
Companies bought 245,000+ BTC in H1 2025, almost 2x the total inflows into ETFs, demonstrating that boards are accumulating BTC instead of naturally supplying it passively.
Corporate treasuries, including MicroStrategy, hold almost 600,000 BTC, which dwarfs the miner supply.
Bitwise calls this demand imbalance a structural bullish factor heading into July.
G20 central banks have delivered over 50 interest-rate cuts over the past year, flooding markets with liquidity. Bitwise argues that this environment incentivizes risk-taking in assets like Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, sentiment among Fed watchers points to an impending US rate cut later this year. Coupled with global easing cycles, these conditions align with Bitcoin thriving in a liquidity-driven market.
Also Read: Is Bitcoin Getting Ready for a Big Price Move in July?
Bitcoin currently trades at $109,378, showing a gain of about 2.59% over the past 24 hours.
Technical indicators suggest a breakout path:
A resistance zone around $114,000, if broken, opens potential for a move up to $143,000 per Rosenberg Research.
Meanwhile, MACD, RSI, and volume patterns hint at bullish momentum building classic “ascending triangle” pressure toward a decisive breakout.
Polymarket data also backs sentiment: traders assign a 63% chance Bitcoin hits a new high by August, and an 81% chance ahead of October
Also Read: Bitcoin Price Trades at $107,342, Eyes $114K Breakout
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen sustained investor interest. In June alone, nearly $4.6 billion flowed into U.S.-listed ETFs $2.2 billion of that during a single strong week led by BlackRock’s IBIT.
This institutional capital is not transient: Bitwise reconfirms its long-term price target of $200,000 by end‑2025, underpinned by supply scarcity, mounting demand, and regulatory clarity.
Moreover, long‑term holders now account for almost 73% of the BTC supply, short-term holders are selling, and smart money keeps buying.
Despite this bullish thesis, Bitcoin is still subject to a few potential headwinds:
Unexpected tax treatment in the markets or delays with cuts in the rate could knock the wind out of the sails again.
Over-leveraged derivatives positions may trigger sharp corrections in the case of sudden market moves.
A breakdown below $104,000 could invalidate the breakout pattern and invite short-term selling pressure.
Bitwise's forecast that Bitcoin may reach $136,000 by July is predicated on strong logic:
Reversal trading patterns have historically followed crises
Demand from institutions that dwarfs supply from miners sets up a supply squeeze that will be potent
An easy money macro environment drives the appreciation of risk assets
Throw in a technical setup that is very close to breaking out, a diminishing liquid supply, and increasing institutional confidence through corporate treasury and ETF flows, and there is a strong likelihood that Bitcoin price will push to well above $120,000 in the weeks ahead.
With the broader crypto market still digesting macro developments and geopolitical shifts, July may be the month when historic momentum resumes. Bitwise’s long-term target remains $200,000 by year-end, but a July jump toward $136,000 could be Bitcoin’s first major milestone in that journey.
1. Why is Bitwise predicting a $136K Bitcoin price in July?
Due to historical post-crisis rebounds, institutional accumulation, and rising liquidity.
2. How much Bitcoin does Microstrategy currently hold?
MicroStrategy currently holds around 597,325 BTC
3. What role do rate cuts play in Bitcoin’s price movement?
They inject liquidity into markets, encouraging risk-on behavior and favoring crypto.
4. What technical level must Bitcoin break for further upside?
A clear breakout above $114,000 could open doors to $136K and beyond.
5. What are the downside risks for Bitcoin in July?
Delays in rate cuts, regulatory shocks, or a drop below $104K could stall momentum.