Bitcoin consolidates in a $100K - $110K range, forming bullish technical patterns.
On-chain data shows profit-taking, but demand remains strong and supportive.
July has historically delivered solid returns, raising hopes for a breakout above $109K.
Bitcoin has entered July 2025 with renewed interest from traders and analysts alike, as several indicators suggest the leading cryptocurrency may be preparing for a significant breakout. The current price consolidation, historical performance patterns, on-chain metrics, and technical chart structure all point toward a potentially explosive move in the weeks ahead.
Recent on-chain data shows that mid- to long-term Bitcoin holders have been actively taking profits. Coins held for three to five years generated $849 million in realized gains, while those held for seven to ten years liquidated $485 million worth.
Even coins held for just one to two years accounted for $445 million in realized profits. Overall, daily realized profits surged to $2.46 billion, and the seven-day average now sits at $1.52 billion, well above the year-to-date average of $1.14 billion.
Despite this substantial selling activity, Bitcoin’s price has shown surprising stability, hovering near the $106,000 - $107,000 zone. Analysts interpret this as a sign that the market is efficiently absorbing supply. The data highlights a shift in market leadership, as older holders are offloading to newer entrants, a typical characteristic of healthy bull market transitions.
Metrics like Spent Output Age Bands (SOAB) and Binary Coin Days Destroyed (BCD) indicate that this isn’t panic selling, but rather routine profit realization. These indicators have historically signaled continued upside when accompanied by strong price support and steady demand.
July has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin. Since 2013, the cryptocurrency has posted positive returns in eight of twelve Julys, with an average monthly gain of around 7.5%. In 2020, it even delivered a 24% jump.
Given Bitcoin’s tight correlation with risk assets like the S&P 500, which recently posted its highest monthly close, some analysts believe this July could once again favor bullish momentum.
In addition to seasonal performance, Bitcoin's macro correlation to equities strengthens the bullish narrative. Over the past decade, July has consistently been one of the best months for U.S. stocks, and that trend often extends to digital assets.
If these correlations hold, Bitcoin could reach new highs above $112,000 or even test the $120,000 to $125,000 levels this month.
Bitcoin’s price action reflects a classic consolidation phase. The range between $100,000 and $110,000 has served as a battleground for bulls and bears over the past month. Notably, BTC is trading near $106,790 at the time of writing, with recent candles forming higher lows, indicating subtle bullish pressure.
Resistance: $108,500 - $109,300 aligned with the descending trendline and the 1.0 Fibonacci extension. A decisive breakout here could trigger a rally toward $116,000 and beyond.
Support: $101,800 (Fib 0.786) and $100,580 (100-day EMA). These zones have absorbed repeated dips and should remain strong floors if momentum falters.
Currently, RSI is hovering around 53, suggesting neutral momentum. A move above 60 could signal bullish acceleration.
Bitcoin is trading above its 20, 50, and 100-day EMAs, indicating a short-term bullish alignment. The 200-day EMA, located around $94,800, serves as a last-resort support in the event of major breakdowns.
The chart displays a potential double bottom around $101,000 and a double top near $109,000, both of which form the outer bounds of the current trading range. A breakout or breakdown from this setup could trigger significant volatility.
This technical coil, combined with declining volatility and compressing price action, suggests a major move is imminent. Whether it goes up or down largely depends on external catalysts, such as macroeconomic news or major ETF inflows.
Also Read: Bitcoin Price Trades Near $106K, Can It Break $110K?
Beyond price action, market sentiment appears to be shifting in favor of accumulation. Institutional investors are steadily increasing their holdings through regulated vehicles, such as spot ETFs, while retail investors are showing renewed enthusiasm for short-term trades.
The transition of coins from long-term holders to newer investors is often misunderstood as weakness, but historically, it has been a precursor to major rallies. With the market absorbing billions in profits without collapsing, it’s clear that underlying demand remains strong.
Also Read: Bitcoin Eyes New Highs as Investor and Political Interest Grow
A breakout above $109,000 could push BTC to $116,000 - $120,000.
Strong institutional inflows and seasonal strength support this outcome.
BTC remains trapped in the $100,000 - $110,000 zone.
Volatility stays compressed until a macro event triggers movement.
Failure to hold $101,800 support could send prices toward $96,000 or even $91,800.
Lack of buying volume at resistance might lead to short-term rejection.
Bitcoin’s July outlook appears to be forming at the intersection of technical precision, historical performance, and on-chain validation. The convergence of declining volatility, strong support absorption, and seasonal bullishness suggests the market is preparing for a directional breakout.
While risks remain particularly from regulatory shifts or macroeconomic headwinds the broader picture remains favorable. With strong fundamentals, renewed accumulation, and a tightening price pattern, Bitcoin may be preparing to reclaim its position above $110,000 and potentially challenge new all-time highs in the coming weeks.
For now, all eyes are on $109,000 if BTC clears this barrier, a new bullish leg may just be getting started.
1. Is Bitcoin expected to rise in July 2025?
Yes, historical trends and current setups suggest a bullish month is likely.
2. What price level is key for a Bitcoin breakout?
$109,000 is the major resistance zone to watch for a potential breakout.
3. Are long-term holders selling Bitcoin right now?
Yes, but the market is absorbing the selling due to strong demand.
4. What if Bitcoin fails to break $109,000?
It may continue ranging between $100K - $110K or revisit lower supports.
5. What could push BTC to new all-time highs this month?
Strong ETF inflows, macro tailwinds, and historical seasonal strength.