On Friday, the Bitcoin ETF market had US$338.2 million in net inflows (excluding Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) outflows). Net inflows (excluding GBTC withdrawals) decreased from US$389.8 million on Thursday (March 14) and US$960.2 million on Wednesday (March 13).
A larger-than-expected increase in US producer prices on Thursday influenced expectations of a Fed rate drop in H1 2024. US producer prices increased by 1.6% year on year. In January, US producer prices rose by 1.0%. Economists expect a 1.1% rise in producer prices. The figures mirrored the US CPI Report (Tuesday), which indicated a sticky inflation environment.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate drops in May fell from 23.2% to 6.4% in the week ended March 15. The Fed's chances of holding interest rates at 5.50% in June rose from 26.6% to 41.2%.
The shift in perception towards the Fed rate decision path, together with the impact on BTC-spot ETF market net inflows, brought BTC to a low of US$64,909 on Saturday.
Nonetheless, overall weekly net inflows for the week ending March 15 hit a new high of US$2,565.7 million, surpassing the previous high of US$2,271 million in the week ending February 16. The weekly data, which includes GBTC outflows, might provide price support on Sunday as investors plan for the week ahead.
Looking forward, the Fed will announce its March interest rate decision on Wednesday. Investors expect the Fed to keep interest rates at 5.50%. However, future guidance has the potential to impact near-term Bitcoin price movements.
The FOMC Economic Projections and Press Conference will be the main focus. Concerns about inflation and the necessity for a Fed rate hike for the foreseeable future may put pressure on BTC at present prices.
However, investors should analyze BTC-spot ETF market flow data. A sustained increasing trend in total net inflows may mitigate the impact of a more aggressive Fed.
In contrast, Fed support for a rate drop in H1 2024 may drive buyer enthusiasm for BTC, resulting in a new all-time high.
Bitcoin (BTC) remained above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming positive price indications. A break over the US$69,000 resistance level would allow BTC to rise to its all-time high of US$73,810 set on March 14. A move through the ATH would offer the Bulls a chance at the US$75,000 handle. On Sunday, BTC-spot ETF market talk and thoughts on the Fed's rate path merited investor notice.
However, a collapse below the US$64,000 support level might indicate a BTC decline to the US$60,365 support level.
The 14-day RSI reading of 57.21 implies that BTC will recover to its ATH of US$73,810 before entering overbought territory.
Ethereum (ETH) held above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating a positive price trend. If ETH breaks over the US$3,835 resistance mark, bulls will aim for the high of US$4,091 set on March 12. An ETH rebound to the March 12 high might suggest a move to the US$4,200 level.
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