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Last year was tad difficult considering the arrival of Covid-19 and the norms initiated by the pandemic. The whole world went through lockdowns, isolation, and uncertain twelve months. However, for technology, the pandemic is considered a blessing in disguise since it accelerated the adoption of disruptive techs like AI, blockchain, and others.
While we entered into 2021, we hoped the situations won't repeat, but it is and the virus spread is even stronger today. In such a scenario it is impossible to ignore the contribution of technology in these tough times to ease our lives and accentuate vaccine development. Today, technology is enabling the healthcare sector and industries to run without any disruptions. This is when the National Intelligence Council publishes a report identifying the global trends that will shape the environment in the US in the next two decades. The report soon grabbed eyeballs as it discussed the pressing issues in the future and warned against the high penetration of disruptive technologies.
The report states how the world will be unable to address the rapid changes and would gradually become unstable. According to the publication, governments will be under persistent stress to meet the changing demands of the population and the key consequence of an imbalance in society is contestation within communities, states, nationally, and internationally.
There already exists a fear regarding techs such as artificial intelligence taking over the human race and our deeds lashing back at us. Along with the fear looming over technology, there is climate change waiting to spread its wings and dislocate the whole economy. Let us understand the key trends that the 'Global Trends 2040' report highlights.
According to the report, climate change will increase the risks and force states to make hard tradeoffs under pressure. Impacts of climate change will accelerate changes within societies and states, and gradually exacerbate the risk of food, water, energy, health, etc. Countries will have to implement adaptive measures for cutting emissions within a short span of time.
Increasing challenges and a complex trading ecosystem will put countries under pressure and this will lead to national debts. Greater debt burdens will lead to reduced flexibility within nations to fight the challenges including demographic, technological, and climatic changes. Employment disruptions, expansion of powerful firms, fragmented trade environment, rising national debt pressure, and global competitiveness will shape the economy in the US in the coming years.
The report states that in the next two decades, the development and impacts of technology will accelerate leading to better methods to combat the challenges like climate change and productivity. However, it will also create certain divisions and tensions within states. Competition for technology supremacy is one aspect. We are currently witnessing the geopolitical war between the US and China to gain supremacy. It might spread into more nations and there will also be a technological divide between different parts. A more literate and able society will capitalize on technology leaving out the others.
AI will become mainstream in the coming years and it will create disruptions and shift in global employment strategies. Increasing developments in technologies like artificial intelligence could diminish public trust since it will become easier to manipulate and spread propaganda. People would not even be able to distinguish what is real and what is not. AI-enabled security is beneficial as well as fatal for societies since it can be used to protect as well as invade privacy without any consent. Although AI and other techs will provide a wide range of advantages in different industries, but could also widen the divide between communities.
According to the report, the US currency will face threats from digital currency like bitcoins. But these digital currencies are going to gain wider acceptance since many countries are monetizing on them. The report says, "Privately issued digital currencies could add complexity to the conduct of monetary policy by reducing countries' control over their exchange rates and money supply."
This report tries to elaborate more on different key changes and developments that will impact the economy in the coming decades. Every coin has two sides and so does technology and digital transformation. When on one side it protects people from threats, on another side it becomes a threat to people. Thus, it is necessary to address the shortcomings and implement a strategy to develop ethical AI. Along with this, climate change is something we should be concerned about globally. As the report states, it could destroy the economy in less duration. We are going through a pandemic and we do not wish for another one soon, right?
